SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #6

 SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #6

FOR: TROPICAL DEPRESSION "#OfelPH"

TROPICAL CYCLONE: WARNING

ISSUED AT 8:00 AM, 14 October 2020

(Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM today)

TROPICAL DEPRESSION "OFEL" ACCELERATES AND CROSSES THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF SORSOGON.

Landfall:

• The center of Tropical Depression “OFEL” made its second landfall in the vicinity of Matnog, Sorsogon at 6:00 AM today. 

• Earlier landfall/s: Can-avid, Eastern Samar (2:30 AM, 14 October).

Track and intensity outlook:

• Track: "OFEL" will move west-northwestward over the inland seas of Southern Luzon and may pass close or over Masbate, Romblon, and Mindoro Provinces. It is likely to emerge over the West Philippine Sea on tomorrow morning and exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Friday morning or afternoon.

• Intensity: "OFEL" is forecast to remain a tropical depression while crossing the Southern Luzon area. However, this weather disturbance is forecast to intensify into a tropical storm after emerging over the West Philippine Sea.

Hazards affecting land areas:

Rainfall:

• Today through tomorrow morning: “OFEL” will bring moderate to heavy with at times intense rains over Bicol Region, CALABARZON, Marinduque, Romblon, and Mindoro Provinces. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains will also be experienced over Metro Manila, Central Luzon, Northern Samar, Samar, Eastern Samar, and Biliran due to “OFEL” and over most of Mindanao due to Southwest Monsoon.

• Flooding (including flashfloods) and rain-induced landslides may occur during heavy or prolonged rainfall especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards. PAGASA Regional Services Divisions may issue local thunderstorm/rainfall advisories and heavy rainfall warnings as appropriate.

Winds:

• Strong- to near gale-force winds will be experienced in areas under Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) #1 during the passage of the tropical depression. Details of potential wind damage can be found on the TCWS section of this bulletin.

• Occasional gusts associated with the northeasterly surface wind flow enhanced by “OFEL” and Tropical Storm “NANGKA” (outside PAR) may be experienced over Batanes, the northern and eastern portions of Cagayan (including Babuyan Islands), the northern portions of Apayao, Ilocos Norte, and Quezon, the eastern portion of Isabela, and Aurora, especially in coastal and mountainous areas.

Hazards affecting coastal waters:

• Gale Warning is in effect over the seaboards of Batanes and Ilocos Norte and the northern seaboard of Cagayan including Babuyan Islands due to rough seas (2.8 to 4.0 m) associated with the northeasterly surface wind flow. Sea travel is risky over these areas, especially for those using small seacrafts.

• Moderate to rough seas (2.1 to 3.7 m) due to “OFEL” will be experienced over the eastern seaboards of Luzon and Visayas in the next 24 hours, especially in areas where TCWS#1 is in effect. Those with small seacrafts are advised not to venture out to sea over these areas.

Location of eye/center: At 7:00 AM today, the center of Tropical Depression "OFEL" was estimated based on all available data at 30 km Southwest of Juban, Sorsogon or 30 km Northeast of Masbate City, Masbate (12.6°N, 123.8°E).  

Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 45 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 55 km/h. 

Movement: Moving West Northwestward at 25 km/h. 

Forecast Positions 

• 24 Hour (Tomorrow morning): 140 km West of Calapan City, Oriental Mindoro (13.2°N, 119.9°E)

• 48 Hour (Friday morning): 570 km West of Calapan City, Oriental Mindoro (13.5°N, 115.9°E)

• 72 Hour (Saturday morning): 1,015 km West of Southern Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR) (13.5°N, 111.8°E)

 

TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL

TCWS #1 (30-60 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 36 hours) 

Luzon:

Batangas, the southern portion of Laguna (Luisiana, Majayjay, Liliw, Nagcarlan, Rizal, San Pablo City, Calauan, Alaminos, Los Baños, Bay, Magdalena), the central and southern portions of Quezon (Guinayangan, Tagkawayan, Buenavista, San Narciso, San Andres, Mulanay, San Francisco, Catanauan, Lopez, Calauag, Quezon, Alabat, Perez, Atimonan, Tayabas City, Mauban, Sampaloc, Lucban, Gumaca, General Luna, Macalelon, Pitogo, Unisan, Plaridel, Padre Burgos, Agdangan, Pagbilao, Lucena City, Sariaya, Candelaria, Dolores, Tiaong, San Antonio), Occidental Mindoro, Oriental Mindoro, Marinduque, Romblon, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, Albay, Sorsogon, and Masbate (including Ticao and Burias Islands) 

Visayas:

Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, Samar, and Biliran 

Impacts of the wind

• Very light or no damage to low risk structures, 

• Light damage to medium to high risk structures

• Slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities. Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged

• Twigs of small trees may be broken.

• Rice crops, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.

• TCWS #1 in other areas are hereby lifted.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next Severe Weather Bulletin to be issued at 11 AM today.

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