SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #14FOR: TROPICAL STORM "#PepitoPH" (SAUDEL)TROPICAL CYCLONE: WARNINGISSUED AT 5:00 AM, 21 October 2020

SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #14

FOR: TROPICAL STORM "#PepitoPH" (SAUDEL)

TROPICAL CYCLONE: WARNING

ISSUED AT 5:00 AM, 21 October 2020

(Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin to be issued at 8 AM today)

TROPICAL STORM "PEPITO" HAS CROSSED THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LUZON AND IS NOW OVER THE LINGAYEN GULF.

Track and intensity outlook:

• Track: “PEPITO” is forecast to move generally westward over the West Philippine Sea today, before slowing down and turning northwestward tomorrow. It is forecast to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tomorrow morning or afternoon. On the forecast track, “PEPITO” will accelerate and turn westward beginning Friday towards the central portion of Vietnam.

• Intensity: “PEPITO” is forecast to gradually intensify over the West Philippine Sea and may reach severe tropical storm category by tomorrow afternoon or evening.

Hazards affecting land areas:

• Rainfall: Today, “PEPITO” will bring moderate to heavy rains over Batanes, Cagayan, Ilocos Norte, Pangasinan, La Union, Apayao, Benguet, Zambales, Bataan, Occidental Mindoro, and Calamian Islands. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains will be experienced over Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon. Flooding (including flash floods) and rain-induced landslides may occur during heavy or prolonged rainfall especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards. PAGASA Regional Services Divisions may issue local thunderstorm/rainfall advisories and heavy rainfall warnings as appropriate.

• Winds: Gale-force winds and high (strong to near gale) winds will be experienced in areas under Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) #2 and #1, respectively. High to gale-force winds due to the northeasterly surface wind flow will also be experienced over the rest of northern Luzon, especially in coastal and mountainous areas.

Hazards affecting coastal waters:

• Rough to very rough seas (2.5 to 5.5 m) will be experienced over the areas where TCWS and Gale Warning are in effect. In particular, such conditions are expected over the entire seaboards of Northern and Central Luzon, the seaboard of northern Quezon including Pollilo Islands, and the western seaboards of Batangas, Occidental Mindoro (including Lubang Islands), and Palawan (including Calamian and Kalayaan Islands), Sea travel is risky over these areas, especially for those using small seacrafts.

• Moderate to rough seas (1.5 to 3.0 m) will prevail over the eastern seaboards of southern Quezon, Bicol Region, Eastern Visayas, Caraga, and Davao Region. Those with small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions.  

Other disturbance being monitored:

• At 4:00 AM today, the Tropical Depression outside the PAR was estimated based on all available data at 1,880 km East Northeast of Extreme Northern Luzon (24.7°N, 139.7°E). It has maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 70 km/h. It is currently almost stationary. This disturbance remains unlikely to enter the PAR.

Location of eye/center:

• At 4:00 AM today, the center of Tropical Storm "PEPITO" was estimated based on all available data at 40 km North Northwest of Dagupan City, Pangasinan (16.4°N, 120.2°E).

Strength: 

• Maximum sustained winds of 75 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 115 km/h.

Movement: 

• Moving West Northwestward at 30 km/h.

Forecast Positions 

• 24 Hour (Tomorrow morning): 335 km West of Dagupan City, Pangasinan (16.4°N, 117.2°E)

• 48 Hour (Friday morning):435 km West of Sinait, Ilocos Sur (OUTSIDE PAR) (17.4°N, 116.3°E)

• 72 Hour (Saturday morning): 690 km West of Sinait, Ilocos Sur (OUTSIDE PAR) (17.5°N, 113.9°E)

• 96 Hour (Sunday morning): 1,100 km West of Northern Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR) (17.5°N, 110.0°E)

TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL

• TCWS #2 (61-120 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 24 hours) 

Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Benguet. Tarlac, and the northern portion of Zambales (Iba, Palauig, Masinloc, Candelaria, Santa Cruz, Botolan, Cabangan)

• TCWS #1 (30-60 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 36 hours)

Ilocos Norte, Kalinga, Abra, Ifugao, Mountain Province, the southern portion of Isabela (Palanan, San Mariano, Benito Soliven, Naguilian, Gamu, Burgos, San Manuel, Aurora, Cabatuan, Luna, Reina Mercedes, Cauayan City, Dinapigue, San Guillermo, Angadanan, Alicia, San Mateo, Ramon, San Isidro, Echague, San Agustin, Jones, Santiago City, Cordon), Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Aurora, Nueva Ecija, Bulacan, Pampanga, the rest of Zambales, and Bataan

• TCWS #1 in other areas is hereby lifted.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next Severe Weather Bulletin to be issued at 8 AM today.

Link: http://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tropical-cyclone/severe-weather-bulletin/2

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