SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #17
FOR: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM "#PepitoPH" (SAUDEL)
TROPICAL CYCLONE: ALERT
ISSUED AT 5:00 PM, 21 October 2020
(Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today)
"PEPITO" INTENSIFIES INTO A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM.
Track and intensity outlook:
• Track: “PEPITO” is forecast to move generally west-northwestward over the West Philippine Sea today, before slowing down and turning northwestward tomorrow. It is forecast to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tomorrow morning or afternoon. On the forecast track, “PEPITO” will accelerate and turn westward beginning Friday towards the central portion of Vietnam.
• Intensity: “PEPITO” intensified into a severe tropical storm at 2:00 PM today. It is forecast to gradually intensify over the West Philippine Sea and may reach its peak intensity on Friday or Saturday.
Hazards affecting land areas:
• Rainfall: Today through tomorrow morning, light to moderate with at times heavy rains will be experienced over Western Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Zambales, Bataan, Occidental Mindoro, and Palawan. Flooding (including flash floods) and rain-induced landslides may occur during heavy or prolonged rainfall especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards. PAGASA Regional Services Divisions may issue local thunderstorm/rainfall advisories and heavy rainfall warnings as appropriate.
• Winds: TCWS #1 over the western portion of Pangasinan is now lifted. No TCWS is currently in effect. However, high to gale-force winds due to the northeasterly surface wind flow will also be experienced over Northern Luzon, especially in coastal and mountainous areas.
Hazards affecting coastal waters:
• Gale Warning is in effect due to rough to very rough seas (2.5 to 5.5 m) over the entire seaboards of Northern and Central Luzon, the seaboard of northern Quezon including Polillo Islands, and the western seaboards of Batangas, Occidental Mindoro (including Lubang Islands), and Palawan (including Calamian and Kalayaan Islands). Sea travel is risky over these areas, especially for those using small seacrafts.
• Moderate to rough seas (1.5 to 3.0 m) will prevail over the eastern seaboards of southern Quezon, Bicol Region, Eastern Visayas, Caraga, and Davao Region. Those with small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions.
Other disturbance being monitored:
• At 4:00 PM today, the Tropical Depression outside the PAR was estimated based on all available data at 1,865 km East Northeast of Extreme Northern Luzon (24.4°N, 139.6°E). It has maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 70 km/h. It is moving south-southwestward at 10 km/h. This disturbance remains unlikely to enter the PAR.
Location of eye/center: At 4:00 PM today, the center of Severe Tropical Storm "PEPITO" was estimated based on all available data at 295 km West of Dagupan City, Pangasinan (16.4°N, 117.6°E).
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 95 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 115 km/h.
Movement: Moving Westward at 15 km/h.
Forecast Positions
• 24 Hour (Tomorrow afternoon): 415 km West of Sinait, Ilocos Sur (OUTSIDE PAR) (17.4°N, 116.5°E)
• 48 Hour (Friday afternoon):540 km West of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte (OUTSIDE PAR) (18.1°N, 115.5°E)
• 72 Hour (Saturday afternoon): 890 km West of Northern Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR) (17.8°N, 112.2°E)
• 96 Hour (Sunday afternoon):1,270 km West of Northern Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR) (17.8°N, 108.6°E)
NO TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL
The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next Severe Weather Bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
@PAGASA-DOST
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