SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #9
FOR: TROPICAL STORM "#PepitoPH" (SAUDEL)
TROPICAL CYCLONE: WARNING
ISSUED AT 2:00 PM, 20 October 2020
(Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today)
TROPICAL STORM "PEPITO” MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH AS IT MOVES CLOSER TOWARDS AURORA - ISABELA AREA.
Track and intensity outlook:
• Track: “PEPITO” will move west-northwestward until tonight and will turn westward while crossing the Luzon landmass. “PEPITO” is forecast to make landfall over the coast of Aurora-Isabela area between 7:00 and 11:00 PM today. It will then cross the Luzon landmass, and emerge over the West Philippine Sea tomorrow morning. This tropical cyclone may exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Thursday morning.
• Intensity: After crossing the landmass of Luzon, “PEPITO” is forecast to intensify and may reach severe tropical storm category by Thursday.
Hazards affecting land areas:
• Rainfall: Today, “PEPITO” will bring moderate to heavy rains over Bicol Region, MIMAROPA, Quezon, Aurora, Nueva Ecija, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Isabela, mainland Cagayan, Pangasinan, and Benguet. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains will be experienced over Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon, Western Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, and Bangsamoro. Flooding (including flashfloods) and rain-induced landslides may occur during heavy or prolonged rainfall especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards. PAGASA Regional Services Divisions may issue local thunderstorm/rainfall advisories and heavy rainfall warnings as appropriate.
• Winds: High to gale-force winds will be experienced in areas under Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) #1 and 2. High to gale-force winds with occasional gusts due to the northeasterly surface wind flow will be experienced over Batanes, Babuyan Islands, and the coastal and/or mountainous areas of mainland Cagayan, Apayao, and Ilocos Norte.
Hazards affecting coastal waters:
• Gale Warning is in effect over the seaboards of Batanes, Cagayan, and Ilocos Norte and due to rough to very rough seas (2.8 to 5.0 m). Moreover, the seaboards of areas under TCWS #1 and 2 will also experience rough to very rough seas (2.5 to 4.5 m). Sea travel is risky over these areas, especially for those using small seacrafts.
• Moderate to rough seas (1.5 to 3.0 m) will prevail over the western and eastern seaboards of Southern Luzon and the eastern seaboards of Eastern Visayas, Caraga, and Davao Region. Those with small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions.
Other disturbance being monitored:
• At 10:00 AM today, the Tropical Depression outside the PAR was estimated based on all available data at 1,735 km East Northeast of Extreme Northern Luzon (24.4N, 138.3E) with maximum sustained winds of 45 km/h and gustiness of up to 55 km/h. It is moving north-northwestward at 15 km/h. This disturbance is less likely to enter the PAR.
Location of eye/center: At 1:00 PM today, the center of Tropical Storm "PEPITO" was estimated based on all available data at 195 km East of Baler, Aurora(15.9°N, 123.4°E).
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 80 km/h.
Movement: Moving West Northwestward at 25 km/h.
Forecast Positions
• 24 Hour (Tomorrow morning): 205 km West of Dagupan City, Pangasinan (16.2°N, 118.4°E)
• 48 Hour (Thursday morning):510 km West of Dagupan City, Pangasinan (OUTSIDE PAR) (16.6°N, 115.6°E)
• 72 Hour (Friday morning): 660 km West of Dagupan City, Pangasinan (OUTSIDE PAR) (16.9°N, 114.2°E)
• 96 Hour (Saturday morning):905 km West of Northern Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR) (17.1°N, 111.9°E)
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL
TCWS #2 (61-120 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 24 hours)
La Union, Pangasinan, Ifugao, Benguet, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, Aurora, the southern portion of Isabela (Palanan, San Mariano, Benito Soliven, Naguilian, Gamu, Burgos, San Manuel, Aurora, Cabatuan, Luna, Reina Mercedes, Cauayan City, Dinapigue, San Guillermo, Angadanan, Alicia, San Mateo, Ramon, San Isidro, Echague, San Agustin, Jones, Santiago City, Cordon), the southern portion of Ilocos Sur (Sugpon, Alilem, Tagudin), the northern portion of Zambales (Iba, Palauig, Masinloc, Candelaria, Santa Cruz, Botolan, Cabangan), and the northern portion of Quezon (General Nakar) including Polillo Islands
TCWS #1 (30-60 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 36 hours)
Abra, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Bulacan, Pampanga, Bataan, Metro Manila, Rizal, the northern portion of Camarines Norte (Paracale, Jose Panganiban, Capalonga, Vinzons), Catanduanes, the rest of northern portion of Quezon (Infanta, Real), the rest of Ilocos Sur, the rest of Isabela, and the rest of Zambales
The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next Severe Weather Bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today.
@PAGASA-DOST
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