SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #6
FOR: TROPICAL DEPRESSION "#QuintaPH"
TROPICAL CYCLONE: WARNING
ISSUED AT 2:00 AM, 25 October 2020
(Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin to be issued at 5 AM today)
TROPICAL DEPRESSION "QUINTA" DECELERATES WHILE MOVING WESTWARD TOWARDS BICOL REGION
Track and intensity outlook:
• Track: Tropical Depression "QUINTA" is forecast to continue moving generally westward until its landfall over Bicol Region tonight or tomorrow early morning. Afterwards, it will traverse the Southern Luzon area until tomorrow evening, then turn west-northwestward over the West Philippine Sea. It is likely to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility on Tuesday morning or afternoon.
• Intensity: “QUINTA” is forecast to reach tropical storm category within the next 12 hours. However, further intensification to severe tropical storm category prior to landfall over Bicol Region remains a possibility. After crossing the Philippine archipelago, this tropical cyclone will continue intensifying over the West Philippine Sea, reaching typhoon category by Tuesday evening.
Hazards affecting land areas:
• Rainfall: Today, “QUINTA” will bring moderate to heavy rains over Bicol Region, CALABARZON, Occidental Mindoro, Oriental Mindoro, Romblon, Marinduque, Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, Samar, and Biliran. The tail-end of a frontal system will likewise bring moderate to heavy rains with at times intense rains over the northern portions of mainland Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Apayao, and Ilocos Norte. These two weather systems will also bring light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Metro Manila, Cordillera Administrative Region, Central Luzon, Zamboanga Peninsula, Bangsamoro, Northern Mindanao, Caraga, and the rest of Visayas, Cagayan Valley, and MIMAROPA. Flooding (including flash floods), rain-induced landslides, and sediment-laden streamflows (i.e. lahars) may occur during heavy or prolonged rainfall especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards. PAGASA Regional Services Divisions may issue local thunderstorm/rainfall advisories and heavy rainfall warnings as appropriate.
• Strong Winds: Strong breeze to near gale conditions will be experienced in areas under Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) #1 within 36 hours of the raising of the wind signal. Potential impacts of these wind conditions to structures and vegetation are detailed in the TCWS section of this bulletin. The possibility of upgrading “QUINTA” into a tropical storm may warrant the upgrading of wind signals in some provinces to TCWS #2 in the succeeding bulletins. In other areas, strong breeze to gale conditions will also prevail over Batanes, Babuyan Islands, and the northern coastal areas of Ilocos Norte and mainland Cagayan due to the northeasterly surge.
Hazards affecting coastal waters:
• Today, rough to very rough seas will prevail over the entire seaboards of Northern Luzon (3.0 to 5.5 m), the western seaboards of Bataan, Batangas, Occidental Mindoro including Lubang Island, and northern Palawan including Calamian and Kalayaan Islands (2.5 to 3.0 m), and the seaboards of Aurora, Zambales, (2.5 to 4.5 m) and all areas under TCWS #1 (2.5 to 5.5 m). Sea travel is risky over these waters, especially for small seacrafts.
• Moderate to rough seas (1.2 to 2.8 m) will be experienced over the other seaboards of the country today. Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions.
Other tropical systems being monitored:
• At 1:00 AM today, the center of Severe Tropical Storm "SAUDEL” outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) was estimated based on all available data at 995 km West of Northern Luzon (17.6°N, 111.0°E). It has maximum sustained winds of 95 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 115 km/h. It is moving westward at 20 km/h and is heading towards the central portion of Vietnam.
Location of eye/center At 1:00 AM today, the center of Tropical Depression "QUINTA" was estimated based on all available data at 440 km East of Virac, Catanduanes (13.4°N, 128.3°E).
Strength Maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 70 km/h.
Movement Moving Westward at 10 km/h.
Forecast Positions • 24 Hour (Tonight): In the vicinity of Goa, Camarines Sur (13.8°N, 123.4°E)
• 48 Hour (Monday evening):300 km West of Calapan City, Oriental Mindoro (13.7°N, 118.4°E)
• 72 Hour (Tuesday evening): 800 km West of Sangley Pt, Cavite (OUTSIDE PAR) (14.4°N, 113.5°E)
• 96 Hour (Wednesday evening):1,140 km West of Subic, Zambales (OUTSIDE PAR) (15.3°N, 109.7°E)
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL
TCWS #1
(30-60 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 36 hours)
• Luzon
-Catanduanes, Sorsogon, Albay, the northern portion of Masbate (Mobo, Uson, Milagros, Masbate City, Baleno, Mandaon, Balud, Aroroy, Dimasalang) including Burias and Ticao Islands, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Quezon, Laguna, Rizal, Batangas, Cavite, Metro Manila, the southern portion of Bulacan (Hagonoy, Paombong, Malolos City, Norzagaray, San Jose del Monte City, Santa Maria, Pandi, Balagtas, Guiguinto, Bulacan, Meycauayan City, Bocaue, Marilao, Obando, Calumpit, Plaridel), the southern portion of Pampanga (Masantol, Sasmuan, Lubao, Macabebe), Bataan, Occidental Mindoro, Oriental Mindoro, Marinduque, and Romblon
• Visayas
-Northern Samar
Impacts of the wind:
• Very light or no damage to low risk structures,
• Light damage to medium to high risk structures
• Slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities. Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged
• Twigs of small trees may be broken.
• Rice crops, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.
The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next Severe Weather Bulletin to be issued at 5 AM today.
Link:http://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tropical-cyclone/severe-weather-bulletin/2
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