SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #11FOR: TROPICAL STORM "#PepitoPH" (SAUDEL)TROPICAL CYCLONE: WARNINGISSUED AT 8:00 PM, 20 October 2020

SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #11

FOR: TROPICAL STORM "#PepitoPH" (SAUDEL)

TROPICAL CYCLONE: WARNING

ISSUED AT 8:00 PM, 20 October 2020

(Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today)

TROPICAL STORM "PEPITO”  MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH AS IT ENDANGERS AURORA PROVINCE.

Track and intensity outlook:

• Track: “PEPITO” is forecast to make landfall over the coast of Aurora between 8:00 and 11:00 PM today. It will then move generally westward while traversing the Luzon landmass, and emerge over the West Philippine Sea tomorrow morning. This tropical cyclone may exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Thursday morning or afternoon.

• Intensity: After crossing the landmass of Luzon, “PEPITO” is forecast to intensify and may reach severe tropical storm category by Thursday.

Hazards affecting land areas:

• Rainfall: Tonight through tomorrow morning, “PEPITO” will bring moderate to heavy rains over Central Luzon, MIMAROPA, Camarines Norte, Quezon, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Isabela, mainland Cagayan, La Union, Pangasinan, and Benguet. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains will be experienced over Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon, Western Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, and Bangsamoro. Flooding (including flash floods) and rain-induced landslides may occur during heavy or prolonged rainfall especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards. PAGASA Regional Services Divisions may issue local thunderstorm/rainfall advisories and heavy rainfall warnings as appropriate.

• Winds: High to gale-force winds will be experienced in areas under Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) #1 and 2. High to gale-force winds with occasional gusts due to the northeasterly surface wind flow will be experienced over Batanes, Babuyan Islands, and the coastal and/or mountainous areas of mainland Cagayan, Apayao, and Ilocos Norte.

Hazards affecting coastal waters:

• Gale Warning is in effect over the seaboards of Batanes, Cagayan, and Ilocos Norte and the western seaboards of Batangas and Occidental Mindoro (including Lubang Island) due to rough to very rough seas (2.8 to 5.0 m). Moreover, the seaboards of areas under TCWS #1 and 2 will also experience rough to very rough seas (2.5 to 5.0 m). Sea travel is risky over these areas, especially for those using small seacrafts.

• Moderate to rough seas (1.5 to 3.0 m) will prevail over Palawan and the eastern seaboards of Southern Luzon, Eastern Visayas, Caraga, and Davao Region. Those with small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions.

Other disturbance being monitored:

• At 7:00 PM today, the Tropical Depression outside the PAR was estimated based on all available data at 1,795 km East Northeast of Extreme Northern Luzon (24.8°N, 138.8°E) with maximum sustained winds of 45 km/h and gustiness of up to 55 km/h. It is moving northeastward at 15 km/h. This disturbance is less likely to enter the PAR.

Location of eye/center:

• At 7:00 PM today, the center of Tropical Storm "PEPITO" was estimated based on all available data including Baler Doppler Radar at 70 km East of Baler, Aurora (15.7°N, 122.2°E).

Strength: 

• Maximum sustained winds of 75 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 90 km/h.

Movement: 

• Moving Westward at 25 km/h.

Forecast Positions 

• 24 Hour (Tomorrow evening): 335 km West of Dagupan City, Pangasinan (16.3°N, 117.2°E)

• 48 Hour (Thursday evening):555 km West of Dagupan City, Pangasinan (OUTSIDE PAR) (16.7°N, 115.2°E)

• 72 Hour (Friday evening): 735 km West of Sinait, Ilocos Sur (OUTSIDE PAR) (17.2°N, 113.5°E)

• 96 Hour (Saturday evening):1,080 km West of Northern Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR) (17.6°N, 110.2°E)

TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL

TCWS #2 

(61-120 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 24 hours) 

La Union, Pangasinan, Ifugao, Benguet, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, Aurora,  the southern portion of Isabela (Palanan, San Mariano, Benito Soliven, Naguilian, Gamu, Burgos, San Manuel, Aurora, Cabatuan, Luna, Reina Mercedes, Cauayan City, Dinapigue, San Guillermo, Angadanan, Alicia, San Mateo, Ramon, San Isidro, Echague, San Agustin, Jones, Santiago City, Cordon), the southern portion of Ilocos Sur (Sugpon, Alilem, Tagudin), the northern portion of Zambales (Iba, Palauig, Masinloc, Candelaria, Santa Cruz, Botolan, Cabangan), the northern portion of Bulacan (San Miguel, Doña Remedios Trinidad), the northern portion of Pampanga (Candaba, Arayat, Magalang, Mabalacat) and the northern portion of Quezon (General Nakar) including Polillo Islands

TCWS #1

(30-60 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 36 hours)

Abra, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Bataan, Metro Manila, Rizal, the rest of northern portion of Quezon (Infanta, Real), the rest of Ilocos Sur, the rest of Isabela, the rest of Pampanga, the rest of Bulacan, and the rest of Zambales

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next Severe Weather Bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.

Link: http://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tropical-cyclone/severe-weather-bulletin/2

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