Sunday, October 25, 2020

SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #13FOR: TYPHOON "#QuintaPH" (MOLAVE)TROPICAL CYCLONE: WARNING - PAGASA-DOST

SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #13
FOR: TYPHOON "#QuintaPH" (MOLAVE)
TROPICAL CYCLONE: WARNING
ISSUED AT 11:00 PM, 25 October 2020
(Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin to be issued at 2 AM tomorrow)
"QUINTA" IS ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE VICINITY OF BONDOC PENINSULA IN SOUTHERN QUEZON.
Landfall:
• “QUINTA” is about to make landfall over Bondoc Peninsula in the southern portion of Quezon within the coming hour.
• Earlier landfall/s: Malinao, Albay (6:50 PM, 25 October); San Miguel Island, Tabaco City, Albay (6:10 PM, 25 October).

Track and intensity outlook:
• Track: The center of Typhoon "QUINTA" is forecast to continue moving generally westward over the Southern Luzon area until tomorrow afternoon and is likely to pass over or near the vicinity of southern Quezon (Bondoc Peninsula), Marinduque, northern Mindoro Island, and Batangas in the next 6 to 12 hours. It is likely to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Tuesday afternoon.
• Intensity: "QUINTA” is forecast to remain at typhoon category throughout its passage over the Southern Luzon area. After emerging over the West Philippine Sea tomorrow afternoon, this typhoon is forecast to continue intensifying.

Hazards affecting land areas:
• Rainfall: Tonight through tomorrow morning, “QUINTA” will bring moderate to heavy with at times intense rains over Bicol Region, CALABARZON, Aurora, Occidental Mindoro, Oriental Mindoro, Romblon, Marinduque, northern Palawan including Calamian and Cuyo Islands, Northern Samar, Samar, Biliran, Aklan, Capiz, and Antique. The tail-end of a frontal system will likewise bring moderate to heavy rains over Cagayan, Isabela, Apayao, and Ilocos Norte. These two weather systems will also bring light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon, Zamboanga Peninsula, Bangsamoro, Northern Mindanao, Caraga, and the rest of Visayas. Flooding (including flash floods), rain-induced landslides, and sediment-laden streamflows (i.e. lahars) may occur during heavy or prolonged rainfall especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards. PAGASA Regional Services Divisions may issue local thunderstorm/rainfall advisories and heavy rainfall warnings as appropriate. 
• Strong winds: Destructive typhoon-force winds will be experienced in areas under Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) #3, damaging gale to storm-force winds in areas under TCWS #2, and strong breeze to near gale conditions in areas under TCWS #1. Potential impacts of these wind conditions to structures and vegetation are detailed in the TCWS section of this bulletin. In other areas, strong breeze to gale conditions will also prevail over Batanes, Babuyan Islands, and the northern coastal areas of Ilocos Norte and mainland Cagayan due to the northeasterly surge.
• Storm surge: A storm surge of 2.0 to 3.0 m may be experienced over the coastal areas of Camarines Norte, and the northern coastal areas of Quezon including Polillo Islands and Camarine Sur and 1.0 to 2.0 m over the coastal areas of Batangas, Marinduque, Occidental Mindoro, Oriental Mindoro, Romblon, Masbate, Albay, Sorsogon, Northern Samar, Catanduanes, and the remaining coastal areas of Quezon and Camarines Sur.
Hazards affecting coastal waters:
• Today, rough to high seas will be experienced over the seaboards of areas under TCWS and the other seaboards of Central Luzon (2.5 to 8.0 m). Rough to very rough seas will also prevail over the entire seaboards of Northern Luzon (3.0 to 5.0 m). Sea travel is risky for all types of sea vessels over these waters.
• Moderate to rough seas (1.2 to 2.8 m) will be experienced over the other seaboards of the country today. Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions.

Location of eye/center At 10:00 PM today, the eye of Typhoon "QUINTA" was located based on all available data including those from Daet and Iloilo Doppler Radars over the coastal waters of San Andres, Quezon (13.3°N, 122.8°E).  
Strength Maximum sustained winds of 125 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 150 km/h. 
Movement Moving Westward at 30 km/h. 

Forecast Positions 
• 24 Hour (Tomorrow evening): 335 km West of Calapan City, Oriental Mindoro (13.5°N, 118.1°E)
• 48 Hour (Tuesday evening):885 km West of Southern Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR) (14.2°N, 112.7°E)

TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL
TCWS #3
(121-170 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 18 hours) Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Albay, Burias Island, the northern and western portions of Sorsogon (Sorsogon City, Castilla, Pilar, Donsol, Magallanes, Casiguran, Juban, Gubat, Prieto Diaz), the southern portion of Quezon (Mauban, Sampaloc, Lucban, Candelaria, Dolores, Tiaong, San Antonio, Sariaya, Tayabas City, Lucena City City, Pagbilao, Atimonan, Padre Burgos, Agdangan, Unisan, Plaridel, Gumaca, Pitogo, Macalelon, General Luna, Catanauan, Mulanay, San Francisco, San Andres, San Narciso, Buenavista, Lopez, Guinayangan, Calauag, Tagkawayan, Quezon, Alabat, Perez), Batangas, the southern and eastern portions of Laguna (Paete, Kalayaan, Lumban, Cavinti, Luisiana, Majayjay, Liliw, Rizal, Nagcarlan, San Pablo City, Alaminos, Magdalena, Pagsanjan), the northern portion of Romblon (Romblon, San Agustin, San Andres, Calatrava, Corcuera, Banton, Concepcion), Marinduque, the northern portion of Oriental Mindoro (Bongabong, Bansud, Gloria, Pinamalayan, Socorro, Pola, Naujan, Naujan Lake, Victoria, Calapan City, Baco, San Teodoro, Puerto Galera), and the northern portion of Occidental Mindoro (Abra de Ilog, Paluan, Mamburao, Santa Cruz, Sablayan) including Lubang Island 

• Heavy damage to high–risk structures;
• Moderate damage to medium-risk structures;
• Light damage to low risk structures
• Increasing damage (up to more than 50%) to old, dilapidated residential structures and houses of light materials. Majority of all nipa and cogon houses may be unroofed or destroyed
• Houses of medium strength materials (old, timber or mixed timber-CHB structures, usually with G.I. roofing’s); some warehouses or bodega-type structures are unroofed.
• There may be widespread disruption of electrical power and communication services. 
• Almost all banana plants are downed.
• Some big trees (acacia, mango, etc.) are broken or uprooted.
• Dwarf-type or hybrid coconut trees are tilted or downed.
• Rice and corn crops may suffer heavy losses.
• Damage to shrubbery and trees with foliage blown off; some large trees blown down.

TROPICAL CYCLONE: WARNING
TCWS#2
(61-120 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 24 hours) Catanduanes, the northern portion of mainland Masbate (Balud, Milagros, Mandaon, Aroroy, Baleno, Masbate City, Mobo, Uson, Dimasalang) including Ticao Island, the rest of Sorsogon, the rest of Quezon including Polillo Islands, Rizal, Cavite, the rest of Laguna, Metro Manila, the southern portion of Bulacan (Norzagaray, Angat, San Rafael, Baliuag, Pulilan, Calumpit, Hagonoy, Paombong, Malolos City, Plaridel, Bustos, San Jose del Monte City, Santa Maria, Pandi, Guiguinto, Balagtas, Bulacan, Bocaue, Meycauayan City, Obando, Marilao), the southern portion of Pampanga (Lubao, Sasmuan, Macabebe, Masantol, Minalin, Apalit), Bataan, the rest of Romblon, the rest of Oriental Mindoro, the rest of Occidental Mindoro, and Calamian Islands The extreme northern portion of Antique (Caluya) and the western portion of Northern Samar (San Isidro, Victoria, San Jose, Rosario, Lavezares, Allen, Biri, Capul, San Antonio, San Vicente) 
• Light to Moderate damage to high risk structures; 
• Very light to light damage to medium-risk structures;
• No damage to very light damage to low risk structures
• Unshielded, old dilapidated schoolhouses, makeshift shanties, and other structures of light materials are partially damaged or unroofed.
• A number of nipa and cogon houses may be partially or totally unroofed.
• Some old galvanized iron (G.I.) roofs may be peeled or blown off.
• Some wooden, old electric posts are tilted or downed.
• Some damage to poorly constructed signs/billboards
• In general, the winds may bring light to moderate damage to the exposed communities. Most banana plants, a few mango trees, ipil-ipil and similar types of trees are downed or broken.
• Some coconut trees may be tilted with few others broken.
• Rice and corn may be adversely affected.
• Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some heavy-foliaged trees blown down.

TROPICAL CYCLONE: WARNING
TCWS#1
(30-60 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 36 hours) The southern portion of Aurora (Dingalan, San Luis), the southern portion of Nueva Ecija (Gabaldon, Laur, Palayan City, General Tinio, Cabanatuan City, Aliaga, Zaragoza, Jaen, San Antonio, Santa Rosa, PeƱaranda, Gapan City, San Leonardo, San Isidro, Cabiao), the southern portion of Tarlac (La Paz, Tarlac City, San Jose, Concepcion, Capas, Bamban), the rest of Bulacan, the rest of Pampanga, the central and southern portion of Zambales (Iba, Botolan, Cabangan, San Felipe, San Narciso, San Antonio, San Marcelino, Castillejos, Subic, Olongapo City), the northern portion of Palawan (El Nido, Taytay) including Cuyo Islands, and the rest of Masbate The rest of the northern portion of Antique (Laua-An, Barbaza, Tibiao, Culasi, Sebaste, Pandan, Libertad), Aklan, Capiz, the northern portion of Iloilo (Lemery, Sara, San Dionisio, Batad, Estancia, Carles, Balasan), the northern portion of Samar (Calbayog City, Matuguinao, Tagapul-An, Santo Nino, Almagro, Santa Margarita, Gandara, San Jose de Buan, Pagsanghan, Tarangnan, San Jorge, Catbalogan City, Jiabong, Motiong, Paranas), the northern portion of Eastern Samar (Jipapad, Maslog, Arteche), and the rest of Northern Samar

• Very light or no damage to low risk structures, 
• Light damage to medium to high risk structures
• Slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities. Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged
• Twigs of small trees may be broken.
• Rice crops, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.
 TCWS in other areas is hereby lifted.
 
The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next Severe Weather Bulletin to be issued at 2 AM tomorrow.

@PAGASA-DOST

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