SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #12
FOR: TYPHOON "#RollyPH" (GONI)
TROPICAL CYCLONE: WARNING
ISSUED AT 2:00 AM, 01 November 2020
(Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin to be issued at 5 AM today)
CATANDUANES IS UNDER EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION AS TYPHOON "ROLLY" IS NOW HOURS FROM LANDFALL OVER THE PROVINCE.
**Within the next 12 hours, violent winds and intense to torrential rainfall associated with the region of the eyewall and inner rainbands of the typhoon will be experienced over Catanduanes, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Albay, and the southern portion of Quezon. This a particularly dangerous situation for these areas.**
Track and intensity outlook:
• The center of the eye of Typhoon “ROLLY” is forecast make landfall at or near its current peak intensity over Catanduanes this early morning and over Camarines Sur this morning. Afterwards, the center will cross the Camarines Provinces before heading towards mainland Quezon this afternoon. After crossing the CALABARZON area, the center of “ROLLY” is forecast to exit the mainland Luzon landmass and emerge over the Philippine Sea on tomorrow early morning. During its traverse of Southern Luzon, “ROLLY” is forecast to weaken considerably and emerge as a severe tropical storm or minimal typhoon over the West Philippine Sea.
Hazards affecting land areas:
• Rainfall: Today, the passage of Typhoon “ROLLY” will bring heavy to intense with at times torrential rains over Bicol Region, CALABARZON, Metro Manila, Marinduque, Romblon, Mindoro Provinces, Bataan, Bulacan, Aurora, Northern Samar, Samar, Eastern Samar, Biliran, and the eastern portions of mainland Cagayan and Isabela. Moderate to heavy rains with at times intense rains will be experienced over Cordillera Administrative Region, Leyte, and the rest of mainland Cagayan Valley and Central Luzon. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains will be experienced over Caraga, Northern Mindanao, Zamboanga Peninsula, and the rest of Luzon and Visayas. Flooding (including flash floods), rain-induced landslides, and sediment-laden streamflows (i.e. lahar) may occur during heavy or prolonged rainfall especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards. PAGASA Regional Services Divisions may issue local thunderstorm/rainfall advisories and heavy rainfall warnings as appropriate.
• Strong winds: Very destructive typhoon-force winds will be experienced in areas under Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) #4, destructive typhoon-force winds in areas under TCWS #3, damaging gale- to storm-force winds in areas under TCWS #2, and strong breeze to near gale conditions in areas under TCWS #1. Potential impacts of the wind conditions to structures and vegetation under each wind signal are detailed in the TCWS section of this bulletin. Elsewhere, strong breeze to near gale conditions due to the northeasterlies will be experienced over the rest of Northern Luzon that are not under TCWS #1.
• Storm surge: In the next 24 hours, there is a high risk of storm surge of more than 3.0 m over the coastal areas of Catanduanes and Camarines Norte and the northern coastal areas of Quezon including Polillo Islands and Camarines Sur; up to 3.0 m over the coastal areas of Metro Manila, Cavite, Bulacan, Pampanga, Bataan, the southeastern coastal area of Batangas (facing Tayabas Bay), and most of the southern coastal areas of Quezon; up to 2.0 m over the coastal areas of Marinduque, Lubang Island, Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, and Burias Island and the remaining coastal areas of Quezon, Camarines Sur, and Batangas. Moreover, there is also a moderate to high risk of seiche or storm surge over the coastal areas surrounding Laguna de Bay and Taal Lake. These storm surges, which may be accompanied by swells and breaking waves reaching the coast can cause life-threatening and damaging coastal inundation.
Hazards affecting coastal waters:
• Today, rough to phenomenal seas (2.5 to 16.0 m) will be experienced over the seaboard of areas where TCWS is in effect and rough to very rough seas (2.5 to 5.0 m) over the remaining seaboards of Northern Luzon and the eastern seaboards of Eastern Visayas (that are not under TCWS) and Caraga. Sea travel is risky for all types of seacrafts over these waters, especially those under TCWS.
• Moderate to rough seas (1.2 to 2.5 m) will be experienced over remaining seaboards of the country. Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions.
Other tropical systems being monitored:
At 1:00 AM today, the center of Tropical Depression “ATSANI” was estimated at 1,385 km East of Southern Luzon (14.5°N, 137.0°E). It currently has maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 70 km/h. It is moving west-northwestward at 20 km/h and is forecast to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility this afternoon. Once inside the PAR, “ATSANI” will be given the domestic name “SIONY”. It remains less likely to affect any portion of the country over the next 2 to 3 days. It is likely to re-intensify into a tropical storm in the next 12 to 24 hours.
Location of eye/center:
• At 1:00 AM today, the center of the eye of Typhoon "ROLLY" was located based on all available data including those from Virac and Daet Doppler Weather Radars at 110 km East Northeast of Virac, Catanduanes (13.8°N, 125.2°E).
Strength:
• Maximum sustained winds of 215 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 265 km/h.
Movement:
• Moving West Southwestward at 25 km/h.
Forecast Positions
• 24 Hour (Tonight): 55 km West of Sangley Pt, Cavite or 45 km South Southeast of Subic, Zambales (14.4°N, 120.4°E)
• 48 Hour (Monday evening):440 km West of Iba, Zambales (15.2°N, 115.9°E)
• 72 Hour (Tuesday evening): 835 km West of Central Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR) (15.0°N, 112.2°E)
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS
TCWS #4
(171-220 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 12 hours)
LUZON:
Catanduanes, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, the northern portion of Albay (Rapu-Rapu, Bacacay, Tabaco City, Malilipot, Santo Domingo, Malinao, Tiwi, Polangui, Libon), and the eastern portion of Quezon (Tagkawayan, Guinayangan, Calauag, Lopez, Catanauan, Buenavista, Mulanay, San Narciso, San Andres, San Francisco)
TCWS #3
(121-170 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 18 hours)
LUZON:
The rest of Albay, Burias and Ticao Islands, Sorsogon, the rest of Quezon including Polillo Islands, Laguna, Rizal, Cavite, Batangas, Metro Manila, the southern portion of Bulacan (Norzagaray, Santa Maria, Balagtas, Bulacan, San Jose del Monte City, Bocaue, Marilao, Meycauayan City, Obando), Marinduque, the northern portion of Occidental Mindoro (Abra de Ilog), northern portion of Oriental Mindoro (Gloria, Pinamalayan, Socorro, Pola, Victoria, Naujan, Calapan City, Baco, San Teodoro, Puerto Galera), and the northern portion of Romblon (Concepcion, Banton, Corcuera)
VISAYAS:
Northern Samar
TCWS #2
(61-120 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 24 hours)
LUZON:
The rest of Masbate, the rest of Romblon, the rest of Oriental Mindoro, the rest of Occidental Mindoro including Lubang Island, the rest of Bulacan, Pampanga, Bataan, Zambales, Tarlac, Nueva Ecija, the central and southern portion of Aurora (Dipaculao, Maria Aurora, Baler, San Luis, Dingalan), the southern portion of Quirino (Nagtipunan), the southern portion of Nueva Vizcaya (Alfonso Castaneda, Dupax Del Norte, Dupax Del Sur), and Pangasinan
VISAYAS:
The northern portion of Samar (Catbalogan City, Jiabong, Motiong, Paranas, Hinabangan, San Sebastian, Tarangnan, Pagsanghan, San Jorge, San Jose de Buan, Matuguinao, Gandara, Santa Margarita, Calbayog City, Santo Nino, Almagro, Tagapul-An), the northern portion of Eastern Samar (San Julian, Sulat, Taft, Can-Avid, Dolores, Maslog, Oras, San Policarpo, Arteche, Jipapad), the extreme northern portion of Antique (Pandan, Libertad, Caluya), and the northwestern portion of Aklan (Buruanga, Malay, Nabas, Ibajay)
TCWS #1
(30-60 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 36 hours)
LUZON:
The southern portion of Cagayan (Peñablanca, Iguig, Rizal, Piat, Tuao, Solana, Tuguegarao City, Enrile), Isabela, the rest of Quirino, the rest of Nueva Vizcaya, the southern portion of Apayao (Conner), Kalinga, Abra, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Benguet, the southern portion of Ilocos Norte (Nueva Era, Dingras, Sarrat, San Nicolas, Laoag City, Paoay, Currimao, Badoc, Pinili, Batac City, Banna, Marcos), Ilocos Sur, La Union, the rest of Aurora, and Calamian Islands
VISAYAS:
The rest of the northern portion of Antique (Sebaste, Culasi), the rest of Aklan, the northern portion of Capiz (Jamindan, Mambusao, Sapi-An, Ivisan, Roxas City, Panay, Pilar, Sigma, Dao, Panitan, Pontevedra, President Roxas), the northern portion of Iloilo (Carles, Balasan, Estancia, Batad), Biliran, the northern portion of Leyte (Leyte, Tabango, San Isidro, Calubian, Capoocan, Carigara, Tunga, Barugo, San Miguel, Babatngon, Tacloban City), the rest of Samar, and the rest of Eastern Samar
The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next Severe Weather Bulletin to be issued at 5 AM today
LINK: http://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tropical-cyclone/severe-weather-bulletin/2
@ PAGASA-DOST
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