SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #4
FOR: TROPICAL STORM "#SionyPH" (ATSANI)
TROPICAL CYCLONE: ALERT
ISSUED AT 11:00 PM, 02 November 2020
(Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM tomorrow)
"SIONY" CONTINUES TO DECELERATE NORTHWARD OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA EAST OF EXTREME NORTHERN LUZON.
Track and intensity outlook:
• Track: “SIONY” is forecast to gradually enter into a quasi-stationary state in the next 36 hours. Afterwards, the tropical storm will move generally westward towards Extreme Northern Luzon. A landfall scenario over Batanes-Babuyan Islands area around Friday remains likely. However, due to the projected quasi-stationary state of this tropical storm in the next 36 hours, there remains a high degree of uncertainty in the forecast track.
• Intensity: “SIONY” is likely remain within tropical storm category within the next 36 hours. Intensification into a severe tropical storm is likely on Wednesday and into a Typhoon on Thursday prior to close approach or landfall over Extreme Northern Luzon.
Hazards affecting land areas:
• Tonight through tomorrow morning, the combined effects of the northeasterlies and the trough of Tropical Storm "SIONY" will bring light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Batanes, Apayao, Cagayan, and Isabela. Flooding (including flashfloods) and rain-induced landslides may occur during heavy or prolonged rainfall especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards. PAGASA Regional Services Divisions may issue local thunderstorm/rainfall advisories and heavy rainfall warnings as appropriate.
• The northeasterlies enhanced by Tropical Storms "ROLLY" and "SIONY" will bring strong to near gale conditions with higher gusts over Batanes, Babuyan Islands, and the northern portions of Cagayan and Ilocos Norte.
Hazards affecting coastal waters:
• The combined effects of "ROLLY", "SIONY", and the enhanced northeasterlies will bring rough to very rough seas (2.8 to 4.5 m) over the entire seaboards of Northern Luzon and the western seaboard of Central Luzon. Sea travel is risky over these waters, especially for those using small seacrafts.
• Moderate to rough seas (1.5 to 2.5 m) will be experienced over the remaining seaboards of Luzon and the eastern seaboards of Visayas and Mindanao. Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions.
Location of eye/center:
• At 10:00 PM today, the center of Tropical Storm "SIONY" was estimated based on all available data at 605 km East of Basco, Batanes (19.8°N, 127.7°E).
Strength:
• Maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 80 km/h.
Movement:
• Moving Northward Slowly
Forecast Positions:
• 24 Hour (Tomorrow evening): 705 km East of Basco, Batanes (20.1°N, 128.7°E)
• 48 Hour (Wednesday evening): 665 km East of Calayan, Cagayan (19.3°N, 127.8°E)
• 72 Hour (Thursday evening): 225 km East of Calayan, Cagayan (19.3°N, 123.6°E)
• 96 Hour (Friday evening): 360 km West of Basco, Batanes (OUTSIDE PAR) (20.4°N, 118.5°E)
• 120 Hour (Saturday evening): 830 km West of Extreme Northern Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR) (20.2°N, 114.0°E)
NO TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL
The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next update to be incorporated in the 4 AM Public Weather Forecast and in the next Severe Weather Bulletin to be issued at 11 AM tomorrow.
Link:http://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tropical-cyclone/severe-weather-bulletin/3
#GTVP
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