SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #11
FOR: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM "#SionyPH" (ATSANI)
TROPICAL CYCLONE: WARNING
ISSUED AT 5:00 AM, 05 November 2020
(Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM today)
SIONY IS NOW MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS LUZON STRAIT.
Track and intensity outlook:
• Track: “SIONY” will accelerate towards the west or west-northwest in the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of “SIONY” will likely pass over (landfall) or near (close approach) the vicinity of Batanes or Babuyan Islands tomorrow morning or noon. After leaving the Philippine Area of Responsibility on Friday afternoon or evening, this tropical cyclone is forecast to turn towards the southwest on Saturday morning and accelerate over the West Philippine Sea towards the general direction of central or southern Vietnam.
• Intensity: “SIONY” is forecast to reach typhoon category with a peak intensity of 120 km/h by tomorrow morning as it passes near or over the Batanes-Babuyan Islands area. After exiting the PAR, “SIONY” will gradually weaken due to increasingly unfavorable conditions over the West Philippine Sea associated with a northeasterly surge.
Hazards affecting land areas:
• Strong winds: Strong breeze to near gale conditions due to the prevailing northeasterlies will continue over Batanes, Babuyan Islands, the northern portion of Ilocos Norte, and the northern and eastern coastal areas of mainland Cagayan until the arrival of tropical cyclone winds. Based on all available meteorological data, the earliest onset of strong breeze to near gale conditions associated with “SIONY” over the areas currently under Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) #2 and #1 will be between tonight and tomorrow early morning. Damaging gale- to storm-force winds will begin to affect areas under TCWS #2 tomorrow morning. Based on the intensity outlook for “SIONY”, TCWS #3 remains to be the highest wind signal to be hoisted during the passage.
• Heavy rains: In the next 24 hours, the troughs of both “GONI” and “SIONY” will bring scattered light to moderate with at times heavy rainshowers over Pangasinan and most parts of Central Luzon, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, Visayas, and Mindanao. Moderate to heavy rains due to “SIONY” will begin affecting Batanes and Babuyan Islands tomorrow early morning.
• Flooding (including flashfloods) and rain-induced landslides may occur during heavy or prolonged rainfall especially in areas identified in geohazard maps as highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards. PAGASA Regional Services Divisions may issue local thunderstorm/rainfall advisories and heavy rainfall warnings while the Hydrometeorology Division and River Basin Flood Forecasting and Warning Centers may issue General Flood Advisories and Basin Flood Bulletins as appropriate.
Hazards affecting coastal waters:
• In the next 24 hours, the coastal waters of areas where TCWS #2 and #1 are in effect will have rough to high seas (3.0 to 7.0 m), while areas under gale warning will be experiencing rough to very rough seas (2.5 to 5.5 m). The complete list of seaboards where Gale Warnings are in effect is detailed in Gale Warning #45 issued at 5:00 AM today. Sea travel is risky over these waters for all types of seacrafts in areas under TCWS and for small seacrafts in areas under gale warning.
• Moderate to rough seas (1.5 to 2.5 m) will be experienced over the western seaboards of Central and Southern Luzon and the eastern seaboards of Visayas and Mindanao. Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions.
Other tropical systems being monitored
At 4:00 AM today, the center of Tropical Storm “GONI” (formerly “ROLLY”) was estimated at 985 km West of Southern Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR). It has maximum sustained winds of 75 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 90 km/h. It is moving westward slowly towards the southern portion of Vietnam.
Location of eye/center: At 4:00 AM today, the center of Severe Tropical Storm "SIONY" was estimated based on all available data at 595 km East of Basco, Batanes(19.8°N, 127.6°E).
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 95 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 115 km/h.
Movement: Moving West Southwestward at 10 km/h.
Forecast Positions
• 24 Hour (Tomorrow morning): 140 km East Southeast of Basco, Batanes (20.0°N, 123.2°E)
• 48 Hour (Saturday morning):300 km West Northwest of Basco, Batanes (OUTSIDE PAR) (21.2°N, 119.2°E)
• 72 Hour (Sunday morning): 620 km West Northwest of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte (OUTSIDE PAR) (20.0°N, 115.0°E)
• 96 Hour (Monday morning):1,395 km West of Southern Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR) (13.5°N, 108.3°E)
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL
TCWS 2 (61-120 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 24 hours)
Batanes
and the eastern portion of Babuyan Islands (Balintang Isl., Babuyan Isl., Didicas Isl., and Camiguin Isl. including their adjoining islets)
TCWS 1 (30-60 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 36 hours)
The rest of Babuyan Islands,
the northern portion of mainland Cagayan (Santa Ana, Gonzaga, Lal-Lo, Allacapan, Santa Teresita, Buguey, Camalaniugan, Aparri, Ballesteros, Abulug, Pamplona, Sanchez-Mira, Claveria, Santa Praxedes),
the northern portion of Apayao (Santa Marcela, Luna, Calanasan),
and the northern portion of Ilocos Norte (Adams, Pagudpud, Bangui, Dumalneg, Burgos, Vintar, Pasuquin, Bacarra)
The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next Severe Weather Bulletin to be issued at 11 AM today.
#GTVP
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