SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #10
FOR: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM "#UlyssesPH" (VAMCO)
TROPICAL CYCLONE: WARNING
ISSUED AT 2:00 AM, 11 November 2020
(Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin to be issued at 5 AM today)
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM "ULYSSES" SLIGHTLY INTENSIFIES AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD.
Hazards affecting land areas:
• Strong winds: Throughout the passage of the severe tropical storm, the areas under Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) #2 will be experiencing damaging gale-force to storm-force winds, while those under TCWS #1 will have strong breeze to near gale conditions. Given the likelihood of intensification into a typhoon in the next 12 to 24 hours, TCWS #3 may be raised over several provinces in Bicol Region (and eventually over Metro Manila and portions of CALABARZON and Central Luzon) once “ULYSSES” is upgraded to typhoon category. In other areas, the rest of Northern Luzon will be experiencing strong to gale-force winds due to the surge of the Northeast Monsoon.
• Heavy rainfall: Until this morning, moderate to heavy with at times intense rains over Catanduanes, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Albay, Sorsogon, the southern portion of Quezon, and Northern Samar. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Aurora, the rest of Quezon including Polillo Islands, Marinduque, Romblon, and the rest of Bicol Region and Visayas. This morning through late evening today, heavy to intense with at times torrential rains over Catanduanes, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Albay, Quezon including including Polillo Islands, and Marinduque. Moderate to heavy rains over the eastern portions of Cagayan and Isabela, Aurora, Nueva Ecija, Bulacan, Metro Manila, Northern Samar, and the rest of CALABARZON and Bicol Region. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over the rest of Luzon and Visayas.
• Flooding (including flashfloods), rain-induced landslides, and sediment-laden streamflows (i.e. lahar) may occur during heavy or prolonged rainfall especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards and/or those that received significant antecedent rainfall. PAGASA Regional Services Divisions may issue local thunderstorm/rainfall advisories and heavy rainfall warnings while the Hydrometeorology Division and River Basin Flood Forecasting and Warning Centers may issue General Flood Advisories and Basin Flood Bulletins as appropriate.
• Storm surge: There is a high risk of storm surge with heights of up to 3.0 m over the coastal areas of Quezon including Polillo Islands, Camarines Norte, Catanduanes, and the northern and eastern coastal areas of Camarines Sur, and up to 2.0 m over the coastal areas of Aurora, Bataan, Pampanga, Bulacan, Metro Manila, Cavite, Batangas, northern portions of Mindoro Provinces including Lubang Island, Marinduque, Romblon, Masbate including Ticao and Burias Islands, Albay, and Sorsogon, and the remaining coastal areas of Camarines Sur. These storm surges, which may be accompanied by swells and/or breaking waves near the coast, can cause life-threatening and damaging coastal inundation. Moreover, there is also a moderate risk of seiche or storm surge over the coastal areas surrounding Laguna de Bay and Taal Lake.
Hazards affecting coastal waters:
• In the next 24 hours, rough to very high seas (2.5 to 10.0 m) will be experienced over the seaboards of areas under TCWS and the eastern seaboard of Eastern Samar currently not under TCWS #1. The surge of the Northeast Monsoon will also bring rough to high seas (3.0 to 6.0 m) over the remaining seaboards of Northern Luzon and rough seas (2.5 to 3.5 m) over the seaboards of Kalayaan Islands. Sea travel is risky for all types of seacrafts over these waters.
• Moderate to rough seas (1.5 to 2.5 m) will be experienced over the western seaboards of Palawan including Calamian Islands, and the eastern seaboards of Mindanao. Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions
Track and intensity outlook:
• Track: On the forecast track, Severe Tropical Storm “ULYSSES” will move generally westward throughout the forecast period and is forecast to pass close to Catanduanes this morning through afternoon, and northern portion of Camarines Sur and Camarines Norte this afternoon through evening. Due to the proximity of the center of the storm over these provinces during the passage, it is highly likely that these areas will be within the inner rainbands or eyewall region during the passage. The center of “ULYSSES” is forecast to cross the Calaguas Islands this afternoon or evening and make landfall over Polillo Islands and mainland Quezon between tonight evening and tomorrow early morning. “ULYSSES” will cross mainland Luzon throughout the early hours of tomorrow and will likely emerge over the western seaboard of Central Luzon tomorrow morning.
• Intensity: “ULYSSES” is forecast to intensify into a typhoon within the next 12 to 24 hours and reach its peak intensity of 130-155 km/h prior to landfall. While it is likely for this tropical cyclone to weaken due to land interaction during its traverse of mainland Luzon (especially with the Sierra Madre mountain range), it is highly likely that this tropical cyclone will remain a typhoon while crossing the Luzon landmass.
Location of eye/center:
• At 1:00 AM today, the center of Severe Tropical Storm "ULYSSES" was estimated based on all available data including those from Daet Doppler Weather Radar 215 km East Northeast of Virac, Catanduanes (14.5°N, 126.0°E).
Strength:
• Maximum sustained winds of 100 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 125 km/h.
Movement:
• Moving Westward at 20 km/h.
Forecast Positions:
• 24 Hour (Tonight): 40 km East Southeast of Infanta, Quezon (14.6°N, 122.0°E)
• 48 Hour (Thursday evening):375 km West of Subic Bay (14.9°N, 116.8°E)
• 72 Hour (Friday evening): 850 km West of Central Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR) (15.1°N, 112.4°E)
• 96 Hour (Saturday evening):1,265 km West of Central Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR) (15.8°N, 108.2°E)
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL
TCWS #2
(61-120 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 24 hours)
LUZON:
The southern portion of Nueva Vizcaya (Dupax Del Norte, Dupax Del Sur, Alfonso Castaneda), the southern portion of Quirino (Nagtipunan), the central and southern portions of Aurora (Dinalungan, Dipaculao, Maria Aurora, Baler, San Luis, Dingalan), the central and eastern portions of Nueva Ecija (Carranglan, Lupao, Muñoz City, Quezon, Santo Domingo, Aliaga, Jaen, Cabiao, San Isidro, San Leonardo, San Antonio, Santa Rosa, Gapan City, Peñaranda, General Tinio, Gabaldon, Bongabon, Pantabangan, San Jose City, Llanera, Talavera, Cabanatuan City, General Mamerto Natividad, Palayan City, Laur, Rizal), the eastern portion of Pampanga (Arayat, Mexico, San Fernando City, Minalin, Santo Tomas, Macabebe, Masantol, Apalit, San Simon, San Luis, Santa Ana, Candaba), Bulacan, Metro Manila, Rizal, Laguna, Cavite, Batangas, Quezon including Polillo Islands, Marinduque, the northern portion of Oriental Mindoro (Pola, Victoria, Naujan, Baco, Calapan City, San Teodoro, Puerto Galera), Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, Albay, Sorsogon, Ticao Island, and Burias Island
TCWS #1
(30-60 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 36 hours)
LUZON:
Isabela, the rest of Quirino, the rest of Nueva Vizcaya, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Benguet, Abra, Ilocos Sur, La Union Pangasinan, the rest of Aurora, the rest of Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, Zambales, Bataan, the rest of Pampanga, Occidental Mindoro including Lubang Island, the rest of Oriental Mindoro, Romblon, and the rest of Masbate
VISAYAS:
Northern Samar, the northern portion of Samar (Santo Nino, Almagro, Tagapul-An, Tarangnan, Calbayog City, Santa Margarita, Gandara, Pagsanghan, San Jorge, San Jose de Buan, Matuguinao), and the northern portion of Eastern Samar (Maslog, Dolores, Oras, San Policarpo, Arteche, Jipapad)
IMPACTS OF THE WIND
TCWS #2
• Light to Moderate damage to high risk structures;
• Very light to light damage to medium-risk structures;
• No damage to very light damage to low risk structures
• Unshielded, old dilapidated schoolhouses, makeshift shanties, and other structures of light materials are partially damaged or unroofed.
• A number of nipa and cogon houses may be partially or totally unroofed.
• Some old galvanized iron (G.I.) roofs may be peeled or blown off.
• Some wooden, old electric posts are tilted or downed.
• Some damage to poorly constructed signs/billboards
• In general, the winds may bring light to moderate damage to the exposed communities. Most banana plants, a few mango trees, ipil-ipil and similar types of trees are downed or broken.
• Some coconut trees may be tilted with few others broken.
• Rice and corn may be adversely affected.
• Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some heavy-foliaged trees blown down.
TCWS #1
• Very light or no damage to low risk structures,
• Light damage to medium to high risk structures
• Slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities. Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged
• Twigs of small trees may be broken.
• Rice crops, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.
The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next Severe Weather Bulletin to be issued at 5 AM today.
LINK: http://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tropical-cyclone/severe-weather-bulletin/2
#GTVP
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