SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #15
FOR: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM "#SionyPH" (ATSANI)
TROPICAL CYCLONE: WARNING
ISSUED AT 8:00 PM, 05 November 2020
(Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today)
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM "SIONY" MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE CLOSER TOWARDS BATANES.
Track and intensity outlook:
• Track: “SIONY” will continue to move westward or west-northwestward tonight through tomorrow afternoon. On the forecast track, the center of “SIONY” will likely pass over (landfall) or near (close approach) in the vicinity of Batanes tomorrow early morning. After leaving the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tomorrow afternoon or evening, this tropical cyclone is forecast to turn towards the southwest on Saturday morning and accelerate over the West Philippine Sea towards southern Vietnam.
• Intensity: “SIONY” is forecast to reach typhoon category in the next 24 hours with a peak intensity of 120 km/h. After exiting the PAR, “SIONY” will gradually weaken due to increasingly unfavorable conditions over the West Philippine Sea associated with a northeasterly surge.
Hazards affecting land areas:
• Strong winds: Based on all available meteorological data, the earliest onset of strong breeze to near gale conditions associated with “SIONY” over the areas currently under Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) #2 and #1 will be between tonight and tomorrow early morning. Damaging gale- to storm-force winds will begin to affect areas under TCWS #2 tomorrow early morning. Intensification into typhoon category prior to landfall or close approach over Batanes remains a potential scenario at this time, the possibility of hoisting TCWS #3 along the projected track is not ruled out.
• Heavy rains: Tonight, scattered light to moderate with at times heavy rainshowers over most parts of Central Luzon, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Bicol Region due to the trough of “SIONY” and due to Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) over most parts of Visayas, and Mindanao. Moderate to heavy rains due to “SIONY” will begin affecting Batanes and Babuyan Islands tomorrow early morning.
• Flooding (including flashfloods) and rain-induced landslides may occur during heavy or prolonged rainfall especially in areas identified in geohazard maps as highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards. PAGASA Regional Services Divisions may issue local thunderstorm/rainfall advisories and heavy rainfall warnings while the Hydrometeorology Division and River Basin Flood Forecasting and Warning Centers may issue General Flood Advisories and Basin Flood Bulletins as appropriate.
• Storm Surge: In the next 24 hours, minimal to moderate risk of storm surge of 1.0 to 2.0 m over the coastal areas of Batanes and Babuyan Islands.
Hazards affecting coastal waters:
• In the next 24 hours, the coastal waters of areas where TCWS #2 and #1 are in effect will have rough to high seas (3.0 to 8.0 m), while areas under gale warning will be experiencing rough to very rough seas (3.0 to 5.5 m). The complete list of seaboards where Gale Warnings are in effect is detailed in Gale Warning #46 issued at 5:00 PM today. Sea travel is risky over these waters for all types of seacrafts in areas under TCWS and for small seacrafts in areas under gale warning.
• Moderate to rough seas (1.5 to 2.5 m) will be experienced over the western seaboard of Central Luzon and the eastern seaboards of Visayas and Mindanao. Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions.
Other tropical systems being monitored
At 7:00 PM today, the Low Pressure Area was estimated at 1,665 km East of Visayas (10.1°N,140.9°E) (OUTSIDE PAR). It may enter the PAR tomorrow afternoon or evening and forecast to move generally northwestward towards Eastern Visayas - eastern section of Southern Luzon area. This LPA is likely to develop into a tropical depression in the next 48 hours.
Location of eye/center: At 7:00 PM today, the center of Severe Tropical Storm "SIONY" was estimated based on all available data at 255 km East of Basco, Batanes(20.5°N, 124.4°E).
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 100 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 125 km/h.
Movement: Moving West Northwestward at 20 km/h.
Forecast Positions
• 24 Hour (Tomorrow afternoon): 205 km West Northwest of Basco, Batanes (21.3°N, 120.2°E)
• 48 Hour (Saturday afternoon):530 km West Northwest of Basco, Batanes (OUTSIDE PAR) (21.8°N, 117.1°E)
• 72 Hour (Sunday afternoon): 920 km West of Northern Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR) (17.6°N, 111.7°E)
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL
TCWS #2 (61-120 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 24 hours)
Luzon:
Batanes and Babuyan Islands
Impacts of the wind:
• Light to Moderate damage to high risk structures;
• Very light to light damage to medium-risk structures;
• No damage to very light damage to low risk structures
• Unshielded, old dilapidated schoolhouses, makeshift shanties, and other structures of light materials are partially damaged or unroofed.
• A number of nipa and cogon houses may be partially or totally unroofed.
• Some old galvanized iron (G.I.) roofs may be peeled or blown off.
• Some wooden, old electric posts are tilted or downed.
• Some damage to poorly constructed signs/billboards
• In general, the winds may bring light to moderate damage to the exposed communities. Most banana plants, a few mango trees, ipil-ipil and similar types of trees are downed or broken.
• Some coconut trees may be tilted with few others broken.
• Rice and corn may be adversely affected.
• Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some heavy-foliaged trees blown down.
TCWS #1 (30-60 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 36 hours)
Luzon:
The northern portion of mainland Cagayan (Santa Ana, Gonzaga, Lal-Lo, Allacapan, Santa Teresita, Buguey, Camalaniugan, Aparri, Ballesteros, Abulug, Pamplona, Sanchez-Mira, Claveria, Santa Praxedes), the northern portion of Apayao (Santa Marcela, Luna, Calanasan), and the northern portion of Ilocos Norte (Adams, Pagudpud, Bangui, Dumalneg, Burgos, Vintar, Pasuquin, Bacarra)
Impacts of the wind:
• Very light or no damage to low risk structures,
• Light damage to medium to high risk structures
• Slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities. Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged
• Twigs of small trees may be broken.
• Rice crops, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.
The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next Severe Weather Bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
#GTVP
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