SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #10
FOR: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM "#SionyPH" (ATSANI)
TROPICAL CYCLONE: WARNING
ISSUED AT 11:00 PM, 04 November 2020
(Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin to be issued at 5 AM tomorrow)
SIONY MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA EAST OF EXTREME NORTHERN LUZON
Track and intensity outlook:
• Track: “SIONY” will accelerate westward or west-northwestward towards the Luzon Strait in the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of “SIONY” will likely pass over (landfall) or near (close approach) the vicinity of Batanes or Babuyan Islands on Friday morning. After leaving the Philippine Area of Responsibility on Friday afternoon or evening, this tropical cyclone is forecast to turn towards the southwest on Saturday morning and accelerate over the West Philippine Sea towards the general direction of central or southern Vietnam.
• Intensity: “SIONY” is forecast to reach typhoon category with a peak intensity of 120-130 km/h by Friday morning as it passes near or over the Batanes-Babuyan Islands area. After exiting the PAR, “SIONY” will gradually weaken due to increasingly unfavorable conditions over the West Philippine Sea associated with a northeasterly surge.
Hazards affecting land areas:
• Strong winds: Strong breeze to near gale conditions will continue in the next 24 hours over Batanes, Babuyan Islands, the northern portion of Ilocos Norte, and the northern and eastern coastal areas of mainland Cagayan due to the prevailing northeasterlies. Based on all available meteorological data, the earliest onset of strong breeze to near gale conditions associated with “SIONY” over the areas currently under Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) #1 will be tomorrow evening. Areas covered by the wind signal may be expanded tomorrow morning to cover other localities in Northern Luzon. Based on the intensity outlook for “SIONY”, there is an increasing likelihood of hoisting TCWS #3 in areas near or along the projected track of the storm.
• Heavy rains: In the next 24 hours, the troughs of both “ROLLY” and “SIONY” will bring scattered light to moderate with at times heavy rainshowers over Pangasinan and most parts of Central Luzon, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, Visayas, and Mindanao. PAGASA Regional Services Divisions may issue local thunderstorm/rainfall advisories and heavy rainfall warnings as appropriate.
Hazards affecting coastal waters:
• The combined effects of "ROLLY", "SIONY", and the enhanced northeasterlies will bring rough to very rough seas (2.5 to 5.5 m) over the seaboards under Gale Warning and TCWS #1. The complete list of seaboards where Gale Warnings are in effect is detailed in Gale Warning #44-Intermediate issued at 11:00 PM today. Sea travel is risky over these waters, especially for those using small seacrafts.
• Moderate to rough seas (1.5 to 2.5 m) will be experienced over the western seaboards of Central and Southern Luzon and the eastern seaboards of Visayas and Mindanao. Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions.
Other tropical systems being monitored
• At 10:00 PM today, the center of Tropical Storm “GONI” (formerly “ROLLY”) was estimated at 940 km West of Southern Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR). It has maximum sustained winds of 75 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 90 km/h. It is moving westward slowly towards the southern portion of Vietnam.
Location of eye/center: At 10:00 PM today, the center of Severe Tropical Storm "SIONY" was estimated based on all available data at 670 km East of Basco, Batanes (20.2°N, 128.4°E).
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 95 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 115 km/h.
Movement: Moving Westward Slowly
Forecast Positions
• 24 Hour (Tomorrow evening): 235 km East Southeast of Basco, Batanes (19.8°N, 124.1°E)
• 48 Hour (Friday evening):270 km West of Basco, Batanes (OUTSIDE PAR) (20.9°N, 119.4°E)
• 72 Hour (Saturday evening): 635 km West of Basco, Batanes (OUTSIDE PAR) (20.8°N, 115.9°E)
• 96 Hour (Sunday evening):1,105 km West of Central Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR) (15.5°N, 109.7°E)
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL
TCWS 1 (30-60 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 36 hours)
Batanes,
the northeastern portion of mainland Cagayan (Santa Ana, Gonzaga),
and the eastern portion of Babuyan Islands (Balintang Isl., Babuyan Isl., Didicas Isl., and Camiguin Isl. including their adjoining islets)
The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next Severe Weather Bulletin to be issued at 5 AM tomorrow.
#GTVP
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