SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #18
FOR: TYPHOON "#UlyssesPH" (VAMCO)
TROPICAL CYCLONE: WARNING
ISSUED AT 2:00 AM, 12 November 2020
(Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin to be issued at 5 AM today)
"ULYSSES" CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND THE CENTER OF ITS EYE HAS MADE LANDFALL IN THE VICINITY OF GENERAL NAKAR, QUEZON.
**Destructive winds and intense with at times torrential rainfall associated with the inner rainband-eyewall region of the typhoon will be experienced over central and southern portions of Aurora, the northern portion of Quezon including Polillo Islands, Metro Manila, Rizal, Bulacan, and Nueva Ecija within the next three hours. Moderate to heavy damage to infrastructure and vegetation is expected.**
Hazards affecting land areas:
• Strong winds: Throughout the passage of the typhoon, destructive typhoon-force winds will be experiencing in areas under Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) #3, damaging gale- to storm-force winds in areas under TCWS #2, and strong breeze to near gale conditions in areas under TCWS #1. The surge of the Northeast Monsoon will bring strong breeze to gale-force winds over the rest of Northern Luzon.
• Heavy rainfall:
• Until noon today, heavy to intense with at times torrential rains over Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, Central Luzon, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, and the eastern portion of Isabela. Moderate to heavy with at times intense rains over Cordillera Administrative Region, the rest of mainland Cagayan Valley, Pangasinan, Marinduque, the northern portion of Mindoro Provinces including Lubang Island, Albay, Catanduanes, and Burias Island. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over the rest of Luzon and Visayas.
• Between noon today and tonight, heavy to intense with at times torrential rains over Zambales, Bataan, Cavite, Batangas, and the northern portion of Occidental Mindoro including Lubang Island. Moderate to heavy with at times intense rains over Cordillera Administrative Region, mainland Cagayan Valley, Babuyan Islands, Pangasinan, Tarlac, Pampanga, Bulacan, Metro Manila, the rest of CALABARZON, the rest of Mindoro Provinces, and Calamian Islands. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Western Visayas and the rest of Luzon.
• Flooding (including flashfloods), rain-induced landslides, and sediment-laden streamflows (i.e. lahar) may occur during heavy or prolonged rainfall especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards and/or those that received significant antecedent rainfall. PAGASA Regional Services Divisions may issue local thunderstorm/rainfall advisories and heavy rainfall warnings while the Hydrometeorology Division and River Basin Flood Forecasting and Warning Centers may issue General Flood Advisories and Basin Flood Bulletins as appropriate.
• Storm surge: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect. There is a high risk of storm surge with heights of up to 3.0 m over the coastal areas of Aurora, Quezon including Polillo Islands, and Camarines Norte, and up to 2.0 m over the coastal areas of Isabela, La Union, Zambales, Bataan, Pampanga, Bulacan, Metro Manila, Cavite, Batangas, the northern portions of Mindoro Provinces including Lubang Island, Marinduque, Romblon, Masbate including Ticao and Burias Islands, Catanduanes, Camarines Sur, Albay, and Sorsogon. These storm surges, which may be accompanied by swells and/or breaking waves near the coast, can cause life-threatening and damaging coastal inundation. Moreover, there is also a moderate risk of seiche or storm surge over the coastal areas surrounding Laguna de Bay.
Hazards affecting coastal waters:
• Within the next 24 hours, the combined effects of Typhoon “ULYSSES” and the surge of the Northeast Monsoon will bring rough to very high seas (2.5 to 11.0 m) over the seaboards of areas under TCWS and the northern seaboard of Northern Samar, rough to high seas (3.0 to 6.0 m) over the remaining seaboards of Northern Luzon, and rough to very rough seas (2.5 to 4.5 m) over the western seaboard of Palawan including Calamian and Kalayaan Islands and the seaboards of Bicol Region not under TCWS. Sea travel is risky for all types of vessels over these waters.
• Moderate to rough seas (1.5 to 2.5 m) will be experienced over the eastern seaboards of Visayas and Mindanao, the seaboards of Cuyo Islands, and the western seaboard of Panay Island. Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions
Track and intensity outlook:
• Track: The center of the eye of Typhoon “ULYSSES” made its second landfall in the vicinity of Burdeos, Quezon at 11:20 PM yesterday and its third landfall in the vicinity of General Nakar, Quezon at 1:40 AM today. The typhoon is forecast to cross Central Luzon and emerge over the western seaboard of Zambales this morning. On the forecast track, the typhoon may exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility tomorrow morning or afternoon.
• Intensity: After making landfall at peak intensity, the typhoon is forecast to slightly weaken while crossing Central Luzon due to frictional effects in the presence of the Sierra Madre and Zambales Mountain Ranges. However, it is likely to remain a typhoon throughout its traverse.
Track and intensity outlook:
• Track: The center of the eye of Typhoon “ULYSSES” made landfall in the vicinity of Patnanungan, Quezon at 10:30 PM today. Its center is forecast to make landfall over Polillo Island within the next hour and over mainland northern Quezon (General Nakar-Infanta area) with the next between 12:00 AM to 3:00 AM tomorrow. Afterwards, the typhoon will cross Central Luzon and emerge over the western seaboard of Zambales tomorrow morning. On the forecast track, the typhoon may exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility on Friday morning or afternoon.
• Intensity: “ULYSSES” is highly likely to make landfall over mainland northern Quezon at peak intensity. The typhoon is forecast to slightly weaken while crossing Central Luzon due to frictional effects in the presence of the Sierra Madre and Zambales Mountain Ranges. However, it is likely to remain a typhoon throughout its traverse.
Location of eye/center:
• At 1:00 AM today, the center of the eye of Typhoon "ULYSSES" was estimated based on all available data including those from Daet, Baler, Benguet, and Subic Doppler Weather Radars at 30 km North of Infanta, Quezon (15.0°N, 121.6°E) and at 1:40 AM today, it was located in the vicinity of General Nakar, Quezon (15.1°N, 121.5°E).
Strength:
• Maximum sustained winds of 155 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 255 km/h.
Movement:
• Moving West Northwestward at 20 km/h.
Forecast Positions:
• 24 Hour (Tonight): 320 km West of Iba, Zambales (15.2°N, 117.0°E)
• 48 Hour (Friday evening):770 km West of Iba, Zambales (OUTSIDE PAR) (15.2°N, 112.8°E)
• 72 Hour (Saturday evening): 1,275 km West of Northern Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR) (15.9°N, 108.4°E)
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL
TCWS #3
(121-170 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 18 hours)
LUZON:
The southern portion of Quirino (Maddela, Nagtipunan), the southern portion of Nueva Vizcaya (Alfonso Castaneda, Dupax Del Norte, Dupax Del Sur), Pangasinan, Nueva Ecija, Aurora, Tarlac, Zambales, Bataan, Pampanga, Bulacan, Metro Manila, Rizal, Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, the northern and central portions of Quezon (Catanauan, Buenavista, Guinayangan, Tagkawayan, Calauag, Lopez, Quezon, Alabat, Perez, Mauban, Real, Infanta, General Nakar, Sampaloc, Atimonan, Plaridel, Gumaca, General Luna, Macalelon, Pitogo, Unisan, Agdangan, Padre Burgos, Pagbilao, Lucena City, Tayabas City, Lucban, Sariaya, Candelaria, San Antonio, Tiaong, Dolores) including Polillo Islands, and the western portion of Camarines Norte (Labo, Paracale, Jose Panganiban, Capalonga, Santa Elena)
TCWS #2
(61-120 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 24 hours)
LUZON:
The central and southern portions of Isabela (Mallig, Quirino, Ilagan, Roxas, Burgos, Gamu, Palanan, San Mariano, Dinapigue, San Guillermo, Benito Soliven, Naguilian, Reina Mercedes, Luna, San Manuel, Aurora, Cabatuan, Cauayan City, San Mateo, Alicia, Angadanan, Echague, Jones, San Agustin, San Isidro, Ramon, Santiago City, Cordon), the rest of Quirino, the rest of Nueva Vizcaya, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Benguet, the southern portion of Ilocos Sur (Cervantes, Quirino, San Emilio, Lidlidda, Santiago, Banayoyo, Candon City, Galimuyod, Gregorio Del Pilar, Salcedo, Santa Lucia, Santa Cruz, Sigay, Suyo, Tagudin, Alilem, Sugpon), La Union, the northern portion of Occidental Mindoro (Paluan, Abra de Ilog) including Lubang Island, the northern portion of Oriental Mindoro (Pola, Victoria, Naujan, Baco, Calapan City, San Teodoro, Puerto Galera), Marinduque, the rest of Quezon, the rest of Camarines Norte, and Camarines Sur
TCWS #1
(30-60 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 36 hours)
LUZON:
The rest of Isabela, Kalinga, Abra, the rest of Ilocos Sur, the rest of Occidental Mindoro, the rest of Oriental Mindoro, Romblon, Albay, Sorsogon, Catanduanes, and the central and western portion of Masbate (Mandaon, Balud, Milagros, Mobo, Masbate City, Baleno, Aroroy) including Burias and Ticao Islands
TCWS #1 in other areas is hereby lifted.
IMPACTS OF THE WIND
TCWS #3
• Heavy damage to high–risk structures;
• Moderate damage to medium-risk structures;
• Light damage to low risk structures
• Increasing damage (up to more than 50%) to old, dilapidated residential structures and houses of light materials. Majority of all nipa and cogon houses may be unroofed or destroyed
• Houses of medium strength materials (old, timber or mixed timber-CHB structures, usually with G.I. roofing’s); some warehouses or bodega-type structures are unroofed.
• There may be widespread disruption of electrical power and communication services.
• Almost all banana plants are downed.
• Some big trees (acacia, mango, etc.) are broken or uprooted.
• Dwarf-type or hybrid coconut trees are tilted or downed.
• Rice and corn crops may suffer heavy losses.
• Damage to shrubbery and trees with foliage blown off; some large trees blown down.
TCWS #2
• Light to Moderate damage to high risk structures;
• Very light to light damage to medium-risk structures;
• No damage to very light damage to low risk structures
• Unshielded, old dilapidated schoolhouses, makeshift shanties, and other structures of light materials are partially damaged or unroofed.
• A number of nipa and cogon houses may be partially or totally unroofed.
• Some old galvanized iron (G.I.) roofs may be peeled or blown off.
• Some wooden, old electric posts are tilted or downed.
• Some damage to poorly constructed signs/billboards
• In general, the winds may bring light to moderate damage to the exposed communities. Most banana plants, a few mango trees, ipil-ipil and similar types of trees are downed or broken.
• Some coconut trees may be tilted with few others broken.
• Rice and corn may be adversely affected.
• Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some heavy-foliaged trees blown down.
TCWS #1
• Very light or no damage to low risk structures,
• Light damage to medium to high risk structures
• Slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities. Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged
• Twigs of small trees may be broken.
• Rice crops, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.
The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next Severe Weather Bulletin to be issued at 5 AM today.
LINK: http://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tropical-cyclone/severe-weather-bulletin/2
#GTVP
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