SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #4
FOR: TROPICAL STORM "#Ulysses" (VAMCO)
TROPICAL CYCLONE: WARNING
ISSUED AT 11:00 PM, 09 November 2020
(Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin to be issued at 5 AM tomorrow)
"ULYSSES" MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH WHILE MOVING OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA.
Track and Intensity Outlook:
• Track: On the forecast track, Tropical Storm “ULYSSES” will move generally northwestward or west-northwestward tonight through tomorrow evening, then turn westward beginning tomorrow evening. On the forecast track, the center of “ULYSSES” is more likely to make landfall over Quezon between Wednesday evening and Thursday morning. However, given the current spread of the track forecast shown in the probability cone, a landfall over Bicol Region around Wednesday afternoon or evening remains a possibility.
• Intensity: “ULYSSES” is forecast to intensity into a severe tropical storm in the next 24 hours. Owing to favorable conditions, this storm may reach typhoon category by Wednesday morning and reach its peak intensity (140-155 km/h) on Wednesday evening. This tropical cyclone may make landfall at or near its peak intensity.
Hazards affecting land areas:
• Strong winds: In anticipation of the onset of strong breeze to near gale conditions associated with “ULYSSES”, Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) #1 is now in effect for several localities in Bicol Region and Eastern Visayas. More areas in these regions will be placed under TCWS #1 in the next bulletin.
• Heavy rainfall: Tonight through tomorrow, the tail-end of a cold front (shear line) will bring light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, the eastern portion of Isabela, and Apayao. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains due to “ULYSSES” will also be experienced over Aurora, Quezon, Bicol Region, Eastern Visayas, Caraga, and Davao Region. Moderate to heavy rains associated with the rainbands of “ULYSSES” will begin affecting Bicol Region and portions of Eastern Visayas on Wednesday.
• Flooding (including flashfloods), rain-induced landslides, and sediment-laden streamflows (i.e. lahar) may occur during heavy or prolonged rainfall especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards and/or those that received significant antecedent rainfall. PAGASA Regional Services Divisions may issue local thunderstorm/rainfall advisories and heavy rainfall warnings while the Hydrometeorology Division and River Basin Flood Forecasting and Warning Centers may issue General Flood Advisories and Basin Flood Bulletins as appropriate.
Hazards affecting coastal waters:
• In the next 24 hours, rough to very rough seas (2.5 to 5.0 m) will be experienced over the entire seaboards of Northern Luzon and the seaboards of Kalayaan Islands due to the surge of the Northeast Monsoon. Meanwhile, “ULYSSES” will also bring rough to very rough seas (2.5 to 4.5 m) over the seaboards of Aurora, northern Quezon (including the northern and eastern coastal waters of Polillo Islands) and Camarines Norte, the northern seaboard of Camarines Sur, the eastern seaboards of Albay (including Rapu-Rapu Islands), Sorsogon, and Eastern Samar, and the northern and eastern seaboards of Catanduanes and Northern Samar. Sea travel is risky over these waters, especially for mariners of small seacrafts.
• Moderate to rough seas will be experienced over the western seaboards of Central and Southern Luzon and the eastern seaboard of Mindanao. Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions
Information on the international name:
The WMO Regional Specialized Meteorological Center – Tokyo has assigned the international name “VAMCO” for this tropical cyclone. This name, which is a river found in southern Vietnam, was contributed by the Socialist Republic of Vietnam.
Location of eye/center At 10:00 PM today, the center of Tropical Storm "ULYSSES" was estimated based on all available data at 485 km East of Borongan City, Eastern Samar or 560 km East of Catarman, Northern Samar (12.4°N, 129.8°E).
Strength Maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 80 km/h.
Movement Moving West Northwestward at 20 km/h.
Forecast Positions
• 24 Hour (Tomorrow evening): 350 km East Northeast of Virac, Catanduanes (14.3°N, 127.4°E)
• 48 Hour (Wednesday evening):90 km Northeast of Daet, Camarines Norte or 210 km East of Infanta, Quezon (14.6°N, 123.6°E)
• 72 Hour (Thursday evening): 200 km West Southwest of Iba, Zambales (14.4°N, 118.4°E)
• 96 Hour (Friday evening):370 km North of Pagasa Island, Palawan (OUTSIDE PAR) (14.3°N, 113.6°E)
• 120 Hour (Saturday evening):630 km Northwest of Pagasa Island, Palawan (OUTSIDE PAR) (14.9°N, 109.9°E)
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND Signal
TCWS #1 (30-60 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 36 hours)
•Luzon
The eastern portion of Camarines Sur (Siruma, Tinambac, Goa, Tigaon, Sagnay, San Jose, Lagonoy, Garchitorena, Presentacion, Caramoan), the eastern portion of Albay (Tiwi, Malinao, Tabaco City, Malilipot, Santo Domingo, Bacacay, Rapu-Rapu, Manito), Catanduanes, and the northeastern portion of Sorsogon (Sorsogon City, Gubat, Prieto Diaz)
•Visayas
The eastern portion of Northern Samar (Laoang, Palapag, Mapanas, Gamay, Lapinig)
The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next Severe Weather Bulletin to be issued at 5 AM tomorrow.
#GTVP
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