SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #1FOR: TROPICAL DEPRESSION "#TonyoPH"TROPICAL CYCLONE: WARNING

SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #1

FOR: TROPICAL DEPRESSION "#TonyoPH"

TROPICAL CYCLONE: WARNING

ISSUED AT 11:00 PM, 07 November 2020

(Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin to be issued at 2 AM tomorrow)

THE LOW PRESSURE AREA WEST OF SORSOGON HAS DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION "TONYO" AND IS NOW IN THE VICINITY OF TICAO ISLAND

Track and Intensity Outlook

The center of Tropical Depression has “TONYO” made landfall over the northern portion of Ticao Island at around 9:00 PM today. This tropical depression is forecast to move rapidly westward within the next 12 hours and its center is likely to pass close or over the vicinity of Masbate, Romblon, and Mindoro Provinces. It is forecast to emerge over the West Philippine Sea tomorrow morning. On the forecast track, the tropical depression may exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Monday morning.

Hazards affecting land areas

Heavy rainfall: Tonight through tomorrow, “TONYO” will bring moderate to heavy with at times intense rains over Bicol Region, CALABARZON, Marinduque, Romblon, Mindoro Provinces, Aurora, and the eastern sections of mainland Cagayan and Isabela. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains will also be experienced over Metro Manila and the rest of the country. 

Flooding (including flashfloods), rain-induced landslides, and sediment-laden streamflows (i.e. lahar) may occur during heavy or prolonged rainfall especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards and/or those that received significant antecedent rainfall from tropical cyclones “PEPITO”, “QUINTA”, and “ROLLY”. PAGASA Regional Services Divisions may issue local thunderstorm/rainfall advisories and heavy rainfall warnings while the Hydrometeorology Division and River Basin Flood Forecasting and Warning Centers may issue General Flood Advisories and Basin Flood Bulletins as appropriate.

Strong winds: Areas under Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal #1 is currently experiencing or will be experiencing strong breeze to near gale conditions with occasional gusts throughout the passage of “TONYO”. The Northeast Monsoon will also bring strong breeze to near gale conditions over Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, Apayao, and the northern portion of mainland Cagayan. 

Hazards affecting coastal waters

Moderate to rough seas (1.5 to 3.5 m) due to “TONYO” and the prevailing easterlies will be experienced over the seaboards of areas under TCWS #1 and the eastern seaboards of Cagayan Valley, Aurora, and the northern portion of Quezon. The Northeast Monsoon will be bringing moderate to rough seas (2.0 to 3.0 m) over the seaboards of Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, and Ilocos Sur and the northern seaboard of mainland Cagayan.

Other tropical systems being monitored

At 10:00 PM today, the center of Tropical Depression “ATSANI” was estimated based on all available data at 410 km West Northwest of Itbayat, Batanes (22.6°N 118.4°E) (OUTSIDE PAR). It is moving southwestward at 15 km/h over the southern portion of the Taiwan Strait.

Location of eye/center At 10:00 PM today, the center of Tropical Depression "TONYO" was estimated based on all available data in the vicinity of Monreal, Masbate (12.6°N, 123.6°E).  

Strength Maximum sustained winds of 45 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 75 km/h. 

Movement Moving Westward at 25 km/h. 

Forecast Positions 

• 24 Hour (Tomorrow evening): 435 km West of Calapan City, Oriental Mindoro (13.0°N, 117.2°E)

• 48 Hour (Monday evening): 1,105 km West of Southern Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR) (12.8°N, 111.0°E) 

TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL

TCWS #1 (30-60 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 36 hours)

•Luzon

Catanduanes, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Albay, Sorsogon, Masbate including Ticao and Burias Islands, the central and southern portions of Quezon (Mauban, Sampaloc, Lucban, Dolores, Tiaong, San Antonio, Candelaria, Sariaya, Tayabas City, Lucena City, Pagbilao, Atimonan, Padre Burgos, Agdangan, Unisan, Plaridel, Pitogo, Macalelon, General Luna, Catanauan, Mulanay, San Francisco, San Andres, San Narciso, Buenavista, Guinayangan, Tagkawayan, Calauag, Lopez, Gumaca, Alabat, Quezon, Perez), the central and southern portions of Cavite (Dasmariñas, General Trias, Tanza, Naic, Ternate, Maragondon, Magallanes, General Emilio Aguinaldo, Alfonso, Mendez, Trece Martires City, Indang, Amadeo, Silang, Tagaytay City, Carmona, General Mariano Alvarez), the central and southern portions of Laguna (San Pedro, Biñan, Santa Rosa City, Cabuyao, Calamba City, Los Baños, Bay, Calauan, Alaminos, San Pablo City, Rizal, Nagcarlan, Victoria, Pila, Santa Cruz, Pagsanjan, Lumban, Kalayaan, Cavinti, Luisiana, Majayjay, Liliw, Magdalena), Batangas, Marinduque, Romblon, Oriental Mindoro, Occidental Mindoro including Lubang Island, and Calamian Islands.

•Visayas

The western portion of Northern Samar (Silvino Lobos, Pambujan, San Roque, Mondragon, Lope de Vega, Catarman, Bobon, San Jose, Rosario, Lavezares, Allen, Victoria, San Isidro, Biri, San Antonio, Capul, San Vicente), the northern portion of Samar (Pagsanghan, Gandara, Santa Margarita, Calbayog City, Santo Nino, Almagro, Tagapul-An), the northwestern portion of Aklan (Ibajay, Tangalan, Makato, Numancia, Nabas, Malay), and the northern portion of Antique (Pandan, Libertad, Caluya)

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next Severe Weather Bulletin to be issued at 2 AM tomorrow.

@ PAGASA-DOST

#GTVP