SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #8
FOR: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM "#UlyssesPH" (VAMCO)
TROPICAL CYCLONE: WARNING
ISSUED AT 8:00 PM, 10 November 2020
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today)
"ULYSSES" INTENSIFIES INTO A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM.
Hazards affecting land areas:
• Strong winds: Areas under Tropical Cyclone Wind Signals (TCWS) #2 will be experiencing damaging gale- to storm-force winds while those under TCWS #1 will have strong breeze to near gale conditions during the passage of the tropical cyclone. Based on the intensity forecast, the highest wind signal to be hoisted during the passage of “ULYSSES” will be TCWS #3.
• Heavy rainfall: Today, the tail-end of a cold front (shear line) will bring light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Isabela, Apayao, and Ilocos Norte. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains due to “ULYSSES” will also be experienced over Aurora, Quezon, Bicol Region, Eastern and Central Visayas, Caraga, Northern Mindanao, Zamboanga Peninsula, and Bangsamoro. Moderate to heavy rains associated with the rainbands of “ULYSSES” will begin affecting Bicol Region, portions of Quezon, and Samar Provinces tomorrow early morning. Flooding (including flashfloods), rain-induced landslides, and sediment-laden streamflows (i.e. lahar) may occur during heavy or prolonged rainfall especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards and/or those that received significant antecedent rainfall. PAGASA Regional Services Divisions may issue local thunderstorm/rainfall advisories and heavy rainfall warnings while the Hydrometeorology Division and River Basin Flood Forecasting and Warning Centers may issue General Flood Advisories and Basin Flood Bulletins as appropriate.
• Storm Surge: In the next 48 hours, moderate to high risk of storm surge of 1.0 to 2.0 m over the coastal areas of CALABARZON, Aurora, Camarines Provinces, Catanduanes, Albay, Metro Manila, Bulacan, Pampanga, Bataan, Romblon, and Marinduque, the western coastal area of Masbate including Burias Island, and the northern coastal areas of Occidental Mindoro and Oriental Mindoro including Lubang Island. These storm surges, which may be accompanied by swells and breaking waves reaching the coast can cause life-threatening and damaging coastal inundation.
Hazards affecting coastal waters:
• In the next 24 hours, rough to very rough seas (2.5 to 5.0 m) will be experienced over the entire seaboards of Northern Luzon and the seaboards of Kalayaan Islands due to the surge of the Northeast Monsoon. Meanwhile, “ULYSSES” will also bring rough to very rough seas (2.5 to 6.0 m) over the seaboards of areas under TCWS and the eastern seaboard of Eastern Samar (that are not under TCWS). Sea travel is risky over these waters, especially for mariners of small seacrafts.
• Moderate to rough seas will be experienced over the remaining seaboards of the country. Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions
Track and intensity outlook:
• Track: “ULYSSES” will move generally westward towards Camarines Norte-Quezon area. On the forecast track, the center of “ULYSSES” is more likely to make landfall over Quezon on Thursday early morning, with a close approach of Catanduanes and Camarines Norte tomorrow afternoon and evening, respectively. However, slight southward shift in the orientation of the track forecast shows an increasing likelihood of landfall over Camarines Norte tomorrow afternoon or evening.
• Intensity: Owing to favorable conditions, "ULYSSES" may rapidly intensify into typhoon category by tomorrow morning and reach its peak intensity (130-155 km/h) tomorrow afternoon or evening. Landfall at or near peak intensity is highly likely.
Location of eye/center:
• At 7:00 PM today, the center of Severe Tropical Storm "ULYSSES" was estimated based on all available data at 425 km East of Daet, Camarines Norte (14.3°N, 126.9°E).
Strength:
• Maximum sustained winds of 95 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 115 km/h.
Movement:
• Moving West Northwestward at 30 km/h.
Forecast Positions:
• 24 Hour (Tomorrow afternoon): 55 km East Northeast of Daet, Camarines Norte (14.3°N, 123.4°E)
• 48 Hour (Thursday afternoon):225 km West of Subic, Zambales (14.8°N, 118.2°E)
• 72 Hour (Friday afternoon): 700 km West of Subic, Zambales (OUTSIDE PAR) (14.8°N, 113.8°E)
• 96 Hour (Saturday afternoon):1,130 km West of Northern Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR) (15.6°N, 109.8°E)
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL
TCWS #2
(61-120 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 24 hours)
LUZON:
The central and southern portions of Quezon (Atimonan, Pagbilao, Padre Burgos, Agdangan, Unisan, Plaridel, Gumaca, Pitogo, Macalelon, General Luna, Catanauan, Mulanay, San Francisco, San Andres, San Narciso, Buenavista, Lopez, Guinayangan, Calauag, Tagkawayan, Quezon, Alabat, Perez) including Polillo Islands, Catanduanes, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Albay, Sorsogon, Burias and Ticao Islands, and Marinduque
TCWS #1
(30-60 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 36 hours)
LUZON:
Moutain Province, Ifugao, Benguet, La Union, Pangasinan, the central and southern portions of Isabela (Quezon, Delfin Albano, Tumauini, Divilacan, Mallig, Quirino, Ilagan, Palanan, San Mariano, Benito Soliven, Naguilian, Gamu, Burgos, Roxas, San Manuel, Aurora, Luna, Reina Mercedes, Cauayan City, Cabatuan, San Mateo, Alicia, Angadanan, San Guillermo, Dinapigue, Echague, San Isidro, Ramon, Santiago City, Cordon, Jones, San Agustin), Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Aurora, Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, Pampanga, Bulacan, Zambales, Bataan, Metro Manila, the rest of Quezon, Rizal, Laguna, Cavite, Batangas, the rest of Masbate, Romblon, Oriental Mindoro, and Occidental Mindoro including Lubang Island
VISAYAS:
Northern Samar, the northern portion of Samar (Santo Nino, Almagro, Tagapul-An, Tarangnan, Calbayog City, Santa Margarita, Gandara, Pagsanghan, San Jorge, San Jose de Buan, Matuguinao), and the northern portion of Eastern Samar (Maslog, Dolores, Oras, San Policarpo, Arteche, Jipapad)
IMPACTS OF THE WIND
TCWS #2
• Light to Moderate damage to high risk structures;
• Very light to light damage to medium-risk structures;
• No damage to very light damage to low risk structures
• Unshielded, old dilapidated schoolhouses, makeshift shanties, and other structures of light materials are partially damaged or unroofed.
• A number of nipa and cogon houses may be partially or totally unroofed.
• Some old galvanized iron (G.I.) roofs may be peeled or blown off.
• Some wooden, old electric posts are tilted or downed.
• Some damage to poorly constructed signs/billboards
• In general, the winds may bring light to moderate damage to the exposed communities. Most banana plants, a few mango trees, ipil-ipil and similar types of trees are downed or broken.
• Some coconut trees may be tilted with few others broken.
• Rice and corn may be adversely affected.
• Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some heavy-foliaged trees blown down.
TCWS #1
• Very light or no damage to low risk structures,
• Light damage to medium to high risk structures
• Slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities. Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged
• Twigs of small trees may be broken.
• Rice crops, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.
The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next Severe Weather Bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
LINK: http://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tropical-cyclone/severe-weather-bulletin/2
#GTVP
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