SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #7
FOR: TROPICAL STORM "#UlyssesPH" (VAMCO)
TROPICAL CYCLONE: WARNING
ISSUED AT 5:00 PM, 10 November 2020
(Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin to be issued at 8 PM today)
TROPICAL STORM "ULYSSES" INTENSIFIES FURTHER AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD.
Hazards affecting land areas:
• Strong winds: Areas under Tropical Cyclone Wind Signals (TCWS) #2 will be experiencing damaging gale- to storm-force winds while those under TCWS #1 will have strong breeze to near gale conditions during the passage of the storm. Based on the intensity forecast, the highest wind signal to be hoisted during the passage of “ULYSSES” will be TCWS #3.
• Heavy rainfall: Today, the tail-end of a cold front (shear line) will bring light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Isabela, Apayao, and Ilocos Norte. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains due to “ULYSSES” will also be experienced over Aurora, Quezon, Bicol Region, Eastern and Central Visayas, Caraga, Northern Mindanao, Zamboanga Peninsula, and Bangsamoro. Moderate to heavy rains associated with the rainbands of “ULYSSES” will begin affecting Bicol Region and portions of Eastern Visayas tomorrow. Flooding (including flashfloods), rain-induced landslides, and sediment-laden streamflows (i.e. lahar) may occur during heavy or prolonged rainfall especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards and/or those that received significant antecedent rainfall. PAGASA Regional Services Divisions may issue local thunderstorm/rainfall advisories and heavy rainfall warnings while the Hydrometeorology Division and River Basin Flood Forecasting and Warning Centers may issue General Flood Advisories and Basin Flood Bulletins as appropriate.
• Storm Surge: In the next 48 hours, moderate to high risk of storm surge of 1.0 to 2.0 m over the coastal areas of CALABARZON, Aurora, Camarines Provinces, Catanduanes, Albay, Metro Manila, Bulacan, Pampanga, Bataan, Romblon, and Marinduque, the western coastal area of Masbate including Burias Island, and the northern coastal areas of Occidental Mindoro and Oriental Mindoro including Lubang Island. These storm surges, which may be accompanied by swells and breaking waves reaching the coast can cause life-threatening and damaging coastal inundation.
Hazards affecting coastal waters:
• In the next 24 hours, rough to very rough seas (2.5 to 5.0 m) will be experienced over the entire seaboards of Northern Luzon and the seaboards of Kalayaan Islands due to the surge of the Northeast Monsoon. Meanwhile, “ULYSSES” will also bring rough to very rough seas (2.5 to 5.0 m) over the seaboards of areas under TCWS and the eastern seaboard of Eastern Samar (that are not under TCWS). Sea travel is risky over these waters, especially for mariners of small seacrafts.
• Moderate to rough seas will be experienced over the remaining seaboards of the country. Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions
Track and intensity outlook:
• Track: On the forecast track, Tropical Storm “ULYSSES” will move generally west-northwestward today, then turn westward tomorrow morning. On the forecast track, the center of “ULYSSES” is more likely to make landfall over Quezon on Thursday early morning, with a close approach of Catanduanes and Camarines Norte tomorrow afternoon and evening, respectively. However, slight southward shift in the orientation of the track forecast shows an increasing likelihood of landfall over Bicol Region tomorrow afternoon or evening.
• Intensity: “ULYSSES” is forecast to intensify into a severe tropical storm tonight. Owing to favorable conditions, this storm may rapidly intensify into typhoon category by tomorrow morning and reach its peak intensity (130-155 km/h) tomorrow afternoon or evening. Landfall at or near peak intensity is highly likely.
Location of eye/center: At 4:00 PM today, the center of Tropical Storm "ULYSSES" was estimated based on all available data at 375 km East Northeast of Virac, Catanduanes or 500 km East of Daet, Camarines Norte (14.4°N, 127.6°E).
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 85 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 105 km/h.
Movement: Moving Northwestward at 15 km/h.
Forecast Positions
• 24 Hour (Tomorrow afternoon): 90 km North of Virac, Catanduanes (14.4°N, 124.3°E)
• 48 Hour (Thursday afternoon):110 km West of Subic, Zambales (14.7°N, 119.3°E)
• 72 Hour (Friday afternoon): 590 km West of Subic, Zambales (OUTSIDE PAR) (14.8°N, 114.8°E)
• 96 Hour (Saturday afternoon):985 km West of Central Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR) (15.2°N, 110.8°E)
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL
TCWS #2 (61-120 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 24 hours)
Luzon:
Catanduanes, Sorsogon, Albay, Camarines Sur, and the eastern portion of Camarines Norte (San Vicente, Talisay, Daet, San Lorenzo Ruiz, Basud, Mercedes
TCWS #1 (30-60 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 36 hours)
Luzon:
Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, the eastern portion of Pangasinan (San Nicolas, Natividad, San Quintin, Umingan, Balungao, Rosales, Santa Maria, Tayug, Asingan, San Manuel), Aurora, Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, Pamapanga, Bulacan, the central and southern portions of Zambales (Masinloc, Palauig, Iba, Botolan, Cabangan, San Felipe, San Narciso, San Marcelino, Castillejos, Subic, Olongapo City, San Antonio) , Bataan, Quezon including Polillo Islands, Metro Manila, Rizal, Laguna, Cavite, Batangas, the rest of Camarines Norte, Masbate including Ticao and Burias Islands, Marinduque, Romblon, Oriental Mindoro, and Occidental Mindoro including Lubang Island
Visayas:
Northern Samar, the northern portion of Samar (Santo Nino, Almagro, Tagapul-An, Tarangnan, Calbayog City, Santa
The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next Severe Weather Bulletin to be issued at 8 PM today.
#GTVP
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