SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #9
FOR: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM "#SionyPH" (ATSANI)
TROPICAL CYCLONE: WARNING
ISSUED AT 5:00 PM, 04 November 2020
(Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today)
SIONY INTENSIFIES INTO A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WHILE MOVING SLOWLY OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA EAST OF EXTREME NORTHERN LUZON.
Track and intensity outlook:
• Track: “SIONY” is forecast to move slowly or remain almost stationary in the next 6 to 12 hours. Afterwards, the tropical storm will move generally westward or west-northwestward towards the Luzon Strait and Extreme Northern Luzon. This will bring the center of “SIONY” over or very close to the Batanes and Babuyan Islands between tomorrow evening and Friday morning. As such, a landfall scenario over these localities remains likely. On the forecast track, “SIONY” will leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility on Friday afternoon or evening.
• Intensity: “SIONY” intensified into a severe tropical storm at 2:00 PM today. It is forecast to intensify into typhoon prior to its landfall or close approach over Extreme Northern Luzon and may reach its peak intensity of 125 km/h.
Hazards affecting land areas:
• Strong winds: In the next 24 hours, the northeasterlies enhanced by Tropical Storm "ROLLY" and Severe Tropical Storm "SIONY" will bring strong breeze to gale-force winds with higher gusts over Batanes, Babuyan Islands, and the northern coastal areas of Cagayan and Ilocos Norte. In anticipation of strong breeze to near gale conditions associated with the severe tropical storm, Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal #1 is now in effect for several areas in Extreme Northern Luzon. Based on all available meteorological data, the highest wind signal to be raised will be TCWS #3.
• Heavy rains: The combined effects of the northeasterlies and the trough of “SIONY” will bring light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Bicol Region, Aurora, Quezon, and the eastern portions of Cagayan and Isabela. Flooding (including flashfloods) and rain-induced landslides may occur during heavy or prolonged rainfall especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards and/or those that received significant antecedent rainfall from tropical cyclones “PEPITO”, “QUINTA”, and “ROLLY”. PAGASA Regional Services Divisions may issue local thunderstorm/rainfall advisories and heavy rainfall warnings as appropriate.
Hazards affecting coastal waters:
• The combined effects of "ROLLY", "SIONY", and the enhanced northeasterlies will bring rough to very rough seas (2.8 to 5.0 m) over the entire seaboards of Northern Luzon, the northern seaboard of Camarines Sur, the northern and eastern seaboards of Catanduanes, and the seaboards of Aurora, Camarines Norte, Kalayaan Islands, and northern Quezon (including the northern and eastern coastal waters of Polillo Islands). Sea travel is risky over these waters, especially for those using small seacrafts.
• Moderate to rough seas (1.5 to 2.5 m) will be experienced over the western seaboard of Central Luzon, the eastern and western seaboards of Southern Luzon, and the eastern seaboards of Visayas and Mindanao. Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions.
Location of eye/center At 4:00 PM today, the center of Severe Tropical Storm "SIONY" was estimated based on all available data at 735 km East of Basco, Batanes (20.2°N, 129.0°E).
Strength Maximum sustained winds of 95 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 115 km/h.
Movement Moving Northward Slowly
Forecast Positions
• 24 Hour (Tomorrow afternoon): 405 km East of Calayan, Cagayan (19.5°N, 125.3°E)
• 48 Hour (Friday afternoon):195 km West of Basco, Batanes (20.2°N, 120.1°E)
• 72 Hour (Saturday afternoon): 655 km West of Basco, Batanes (OUTSIDE PAR) (20.4°N, 115.7°E)
• 96 Hour (Sunday afternoon):1,050 km West of Northern Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR) (17.1°N, 110.5°E)
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL
TCWS #1
(30-60 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 36 hours)
The northeastern portion of mainland Cagayan (Santa Ana, Gonzaga) and the eastern portion of Babuyan Islands (Balintang Isl., Babuyan Isl., Didicas Isl., and Camiguin Isl. including their adjoining islets)
• Very light or no damage to low risk structures,
• Light damage to medium to high risk structures
• Slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities. Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged
• Twigs of small trees may be broken.
• Rice crops, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.
The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next Severe Weather Bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
#GTVP
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