SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #6
FOR: TROPICAL STORM "#SionyPH" (ATSANI)
TROPICAL CYCLONE: ALERT
ISSUED AT 11:00 PM, 03 November 2020
(Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM tomorrow)
“SIONY” MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH WHILE OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA EAST OF EXTREME NORTHERN LUZON.
Track and intensity outlook:
• Track: “SIONY” is forecast to move slowly in an apparent looping manner or remain almost stationary in the next 24 hours. Afterwards, the tropical storm will move generally westward or west-northwestward towards the Luzon Strait and Extreme Northern Luzon. This will bring the center of “SIONY” over or very close to the Batanes and Babuyan Island between Thursday evening and Friday morning. As such, a landfall scenario over these localities remains likely. On the forecast track, “SIONY” will leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility on Friday afternoon or evening.
• Intensity: “SIONY” is forecast to intensify into severe tropical storm in the next 24 to 36 hours and reach its peak intensity of 100-110 km/h on Thursday prior to its landfall or close approach over Extreme Northern Luzon. However, intensification into typhoon category is not ruled out at this time.
Hazards affecting land areas:
• In the next 24 hours, the northeasterlies enhanced by Tropical Storms "ROLLY" and "SIONY" will bring strong breeze to gale-force winds with higher gusts over Batanes, Babuyan Islands, and the northern coastal areas of Cagayan and Ilocos Norte.
• Based on all available meteorological data, Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal #1 will be raised over some provinces in Cagayan Valley tomorrow in anticipation of strong breeze to near gale conditions associated with Tropical Storm “SIONY”. Residents and disaster managers in Northern Luzon are advised to continue monitoring for updates regarding this tropical cyclone.
Hazards affecting coastal waters:
• The combined effects of "ROLLY", "SIONY", and the enhanced northeasterlies will bring rough to very rough seas (2.8 to 5.0 m) over the entire seaboards of Northern Luzon and the seaboards of Kalayaan Islands. Sea travel is risky over these waters, especially for those using small seacrafts.
• Moderate to rough seas (1.5 to 2.5 m) will be experienced over the eastern and western seaboards of Central and Southern Luzon and the eastern seaboards of Visayas and Mindanao. Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions.
Location of eye/center:
• At 10:00 PM today, the center of Tropical Storm "SIONY" was estimated based on all available data at 665 km East of Basco, Batanes (19.9°N, 128.3°E).
Strength:
• Maximum sustained winds of 85 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 105 km/h.
Movement:
• Moving Eastward at 10 km/h.
Forecast Positions:
• 24 Hour (Tomorrow evening): 645 km East of Calayan, Cagayan (19.4°N, 127.6°E)
• 48 Hour (Thursday evening): 160 km East of Calayan, Cagayan (19.4°N, 123.0°E)
• 72 Hour (Friday evening): 445 km West of Basco, Batanes (OUTSIDE PAR) (20.3°N, 117.7°E)
• 96 Hour (Saturday evening): 880 km West of Extreme Northern Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR) (19.2°N, 113.1°E)
• 120 Hour (Sunday evening): 1,145 km West of Central Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR) (15.6°N, 109.3°E)
NO TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL
The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next update to be incorporated in the 4 AM Public Weather Forecast and in the next Severe Weather Bulletin to be issued at 11 AM tomorrow.
LINK: http://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tropical-cyclone/severe-weather-bulletin/2
#GTVP
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