SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #18
FOR: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM "#SionyPH" (ATSANI)
TROPICAL CYCLONE: WARNING
ISSUED AT 5:00 AM, 06 November 2020
(Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin to be issued at 8 AM today)
THE CENTER OF SEVERE TROPICAL STORM "SIONY" IS LIKELY TO PASS VERY CLOSE OR OVER ITBAYAT ISLAND WITHIN THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS.
Track and intensity outlook:
• Track: “SIONY” is forecast to make landfall or close approach over Batanes (more likely in the vicinity of Itbayat Island) within the next 2 to 3 hours as it continues to move west-northwestward. It is forecast to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tonight. It will then turn southwestward tomorrow morning over the sea to the southwest of Taiwan and move over the West Philippine Sea towards the Paracel Islands area.
• Intensity: “SIONY” is forecast to either maintain its current strength or slightly intensify to 100 km/h within the next 24 hours. Beyond this 24-hour window, the storm is forecast to significantly weaken due to increasingly unfavorable conditions associated with a surge of the northeasterlies over the West Philippine Sea. It may be downgraded to a Low Pressure Area on Monday.
Hazards affecting land areas:
• Strong winds: Areas under Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal #2 are currently experiencing damaging gale- to storm-force winds, while those under TCWS #1 are currently experiencing strong breeze to near gale conditions.
• Heavy rains: Today, the passage of “SIONY” will bring moderate to heavy rains over areas under TCWS #2 and light to moderate with at times heavy rains over areas under TCWS #1. Flooding (including flashfloods) and rain-induced landslides may occur during heavy or prolonged rainfall especially in areas identified in geohazard maps as highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards. PAGASA Regional Services Divisions may issue local thunderstorm/rainfall advisories and heavy rainfall warnings while the Hydrometeorology Division and River Basin Flood Forecasting and Warning Centers may issue General Flood Advisories and Basin Flood Bulletins as appropriate.
• Storm surge: In the next 24 hours, there remains a minimal to moderate risk of storm surge of 1.0 to 2.0 m over the coastal areas of Batanes and Babuyan Islands.
Hazards affecting coastal waters:
• In the next 24 hours, rough to high seas (3.0 to 8.0 m) will prevail over the coastal waters of areas where TCWS #2 and #1 are in effect while areas under gale warning will be experiencing rough to very rough seas (3.0 to 4.5 m). The complete list of seaboards where gale warning in effect is detailed in Gale Warning #47 issued at 5:00 AM today. Sea travel is risky over these waters for all types of seacrafts in areas under TCWS and for small seacrafts in areas under gale warning.
• Moderate to rough seas (1.5 to 3.0 m) will be experienced over the western seaboard of Central Luzon and the eastern seaboards of Southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao. Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions.
Other tropical systems being monitored (as of 4:00 AM today)
• The Low Pressure Area outside the PAR was estimated at 1,515 km East of Mindanao (10.1°N,139.3°E). It is forecast to move generally west-northwestward or northwestward and may enter the PAR this afternoon or evening. It is heading towards the direction of Eastern Visayas and may likely reach the area tomorrow afternoon or evening. This weather disturbance may develop into Tropical Depression “TONYO” within the next 48 to 72 hours.
Location of eye/center: At 4:00 AM today, the center of Severe Tropical Storm "SIONY" was estimated based on all available data at 60 km East Northeast of Basco, Batanes or 70 km East of Itbayat, Batanes (20.7°N, 122.5°E).
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 95 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 115 km/h.
Movement: Moving Westward at 20 km/h.
Forecast Positions
• 24 Hour (Tomorrow morning): 265 km West Northwest of Itbayat, Batanes (OUTSIDE PAR) (22.1°N, 119.7°E)
• 48 Hour (Sunday morning): 570 km West of Basco, Batanes (OUTSIDE PAR) (20.9°N, 116.5°E)
• 72 Hour (Monday morning): 770 km West of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte (OUTSIDE PAR) (18.2°N, 113.3°E)
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL
TCWS #2 (61-120 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 24 hours)
Luzon:
Batanes and Babuyan Islands
Impacts of the wind:
• Light to Moderate damage to high risk structures;
• Very light to light damage to medium-risk structures;
• No damage to very light damage to low risk structures
• Unshielded, old dilapidated schoolhouses, makeshift shanties, and other structures of light materials are partially damaged or unroofed.
• A number of nipa and cogon houses may be partially or totally unroofed.
• Some old galvanized iron (G.I.) roofs may be peeled or blown off.
• Some wooden, old electric posts are tilted or downed.
• Some damage to poorly constructed signs/billboards
• In general, the winds may bring light to moderate damage to the exposed communities. Most banana plants, a few mango trees, ipil-ipil and similar types of trees are downed or broken.
• Some coconut trees may be tilted with few others broken.
• Rice and corn may be adversely affected.
• Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some heavy-foliaged trees blown down.
TCWS #1 (30-60 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 36 hours)
Luzon:
The northern portion of mainland Cagayan (Santa Ana, Gonzaga, Lal-Lo, Allacapan, Santa Teresita, Buguey, Camalaniugan, Aparri, Ballesteros, Abulug, Pamplona, Sanchez-Mira, Claveria, Santa Praxedes), the northern portion of Apayao (Santa Marcela, Luna, Calanasan), and the northern portion of Ilocos Norte (Adams, Pagudpud, Bangui, Dumalneg, Burgos, Vintar, Pasuquin, Bacarra)
Impacts of the wind
• Very light or no damage to low risk structures,
• Light damage to medium to high risk structures
• Slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities. Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged
• Twigs of small trees may be broken.
• Rice crops, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.
The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next Severe Weather Bulletin to be issued at 8 AM today.
#GTVP
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