SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #16
FOR: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM "#SionyPH" (ATSANI)
TROPICAL CYCLONE: WARNING
ISSUED AT 11:00 PM, 05 November 2020
(Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin to be issued at 2 AM tomorrow)
"SIONY" CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND IS LIKELY TO PASS NEAR OR OVER BATANES WITHIN THE NEXT 6 HOURS.
Track and intensity outlook:
• Track: “SIONY” is forecast to make landfall or close approach in the vicinity of Batanes within the next 6 hours as it continues to move west-northwestward. It is forecast to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tomorrow afternoon or evening. It will then turn southwestward on Saturday morning over the sea to the west of southern Taiwan and move over the West Philippine Sea towards the Paracel Islands area.
• Intensity: “SIONY” is likely to reach its peak intensity (around 110 km/h) within the next 36 hours. However, there remains the possibility that this storm will reach typhoon category during the same period. Beyond this 36-hour window, the storm is forecast to significantly weaken due to increasingly unfavorable conditions associated with a surge of the northeasterlies over the West Philippine Sea. It may be downgraded to tropical depression category on Sunday.
Hazards affecting land areas:
• Strong winds: Areas under Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal #2 are currently experiencing damaging gale- to storm-force winds, while those under TCWS #1 are currently experiencing strong breeze to near gale conditions. While it is more likely for “SIONY” to remain a severe tropical storm during its passage over the Luzon Strait, the possibility of hoisting TCWS #3 remains as intensification into a typhoon is still not ruled out.
• Heavy rains: Tonight through tomorrow, the passage of “SIONY” will bring moderate to heavy rains over areas under TCWS #2 and light to moderate with at times heavy rains over areas under TCWS #1. Flooding (including flashfloods) and rain-induced landslides may occur during heavy or prolonged rainfall especially in areas identified in geohazard maps as highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards. PAGASA Regional Services Divisions may issue local thunderstorm/rainfall advisories and heavy rainfall warnings while the Hydrometeorology Division and River Basin Flood Forecasting and Warning Centers may issue General Flood Advisories and Basin Flood Bulletins as appropriate.
• Storm surge: In the next 24 hours, minimal to moderate risk of storm surge of 1.0 to 2.0 m over the coastal areas of Batanes and Babuyan Islands.
Hazards affecting coastal waters:
• In the next 24 hours, rough to high seas (3.0 to 8.0 m) will prevail over the coastal waters of areas where TCWS #2 and #1 are in effect while areas under gale warning will be experiencing rough to very rough seas (3.0 to 4.5 m). The complete list of seaboards where gale warning in effect is detailed in Gale Warning #46-Intermediate issued at 11:00 PM today. Sea travel is risky over these waters for all types of seacrafts in areas under TCWS and for small seacrafts in areas under gale warning.
• Moderate to rough seas (1.5 to 3.0 m) will be experienced over the western seaboard of Central Luzon and the eastern seaboards of Southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao. Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions.
Other tropical systems being monitored (as of 10:00 PM today)
• The center of Tropical Storm “GONI” was estimated at 1,135 km West of Southern Luzon (14.0°N,110.7°E) (OUTSIDE PAR). It has maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 80 km/h. It is westward slowly towards the southern portion of Vietnam
• The Low Pressure Area outside the PAR was estimated at 1,600 km East of Visayas (10.1°N,140.3°E). It is forecast to move generally west-northwestward or northwestward and may enter the PAR tomorrow afternoon or evening. It is heading towards the direction of Eastern Visayas and may likely reach the area on Saturday afternoon or evening. This weather disturbance may develop into Tropical Depression “TONYO” within the next 48 to 72 hours.
Location of eye/center: At 10:00 PM today, the center of Severe Tropical Storm "SIONY" was estimated based on all available data at 170 km East of Basco, Batanes (20.7°N, 123.6°E).
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 100 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 125 km/h.
Movement: Moving West Northwestward at 20 km/h.
Forecast Positions
• 24 Hour (Tomorrow evening): 270 km Northwest of Basco, Batanes (OUTSIDE PAR) (21.8°N, 119.8°E)
• 48 Hour (Saturday evening): 585 km West of Basco, Batanes (OUTSIDE PAR) (21.2°N, 116.4°E)
• 72 Hour (Sunday evening): 1,050 km West of Northern Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR) (16.3°N, 110.5°E)
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL
TCWS #2 (61-120 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 24 hours)
Luzon
Batanes and Babuyan Islands
Impacts of the wind:
• Light to Moderate damage to high risk structures;
• Very light to light damage to medium-risk structures;
• No damage to very light damage to low risk structures
• Unshielded, old dilapidated schoolhouses, makeshift shanties, and other structures of light materials are partially damaged or unroofed.
• A number of nipa and cogon houses may be partially or totally unroofed.
• Some old galvanized iron (G.I.) roofs may be peeled or blown off.
• Some wooden, old electric posts are tilted or downed.
• Some damage to poorly constructed signs/billboards
• In general, the winds may bring light to moderate damage to the exposed communities. Most banana plants, a few mango trees, ipil-ipil and similar types of trees are downed or broken.
• Some coconut trees may be tilted with few others broken.
• Rice and corn may be adversely affected.
• Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some heavy-foliaged trees blown down.
TCWS #1(30-60 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 36 hours)
Luzon:
The northern portion of mainland Cagayan (Santa Ana, Gonzaga, Lal-Lo, Allacapan, Santa Teresita, Buguey, Camalaniugan, Aparri, Ballesteros, Abulug, Pamplona, Sanchez-Mira, Claveria, Santa Praxedes), the northern portion of Apayao (Santa Marcela, Luna, Calanasan), and the northern portion of Ilocos Norte (Adams, Pagudpud, Bangui, Dumalneg, Burgos, Vintar, Pasuquin, Bacarra)
Impacts of the wind:
• Very light or no damage to low risk structures,
• Light damage to medium to high risk structures
• Slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities. Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged
• Twigs of small trees may be broken.
• Rice crops, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.
The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next Severe Weather Bulletin to be issued at 2 AM tomorrow.
@ PAGASA-DOST
#GTVP
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