SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #7
FOR: TROPICAL STORM "#QuintaPH" (MOLAVE)
TROPICAL CYCLONE: WARNING
ISSUED AT 5:00 AM, 25 October 2020
(Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin to be issued at 8 AM today)
"QUINTA" INTENSIFIES INTO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES CLOSER TOWARDS BICOL REGION.
Track and intensity outlook:
• Track: Tropical Storm "QUINTA" is forecast to continue moving generally westward until its landfall over the Catanduanes-Albay-Sorsogon area this afternoon or evening. Afterwards, it will traverse the Southern Luzon area until tomorrow afternoon or evening, then turn more west-northwestward over the West Philippine Sea. It is likely to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Tuesday afternoon.
• Intensity: Further intensification prior to landfall over Bicol Region remains likely and the possibility of “QUINTA” making landfall as a severe tropical storm is still not ruled out. After crossing the Philippine archipelago, this tropical cyclone will continue intensifying over the West Philippine Sea, reaching typhoon category by Tuesday evening.
Hazards affecting land areas:
• Rainfall: Today through tomorrow morning, “QUINTA” will bring moderate to heavy with at times intense rains over Bicol Region, CALABARZON, Aurora, Occidental Mindoro, Oriental Mindoro, Romblon, Marinduque, Calamian Islands, Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, Samar, Biliran, Aklan, and Antique. The tail-end of a frontal system will likewise bring moderate to heavy with at times intense rains over the northern portions of mainland Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Apayao, and Ilocos Norte. These two weather systems will also bring light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Metro Manila, Cordillera Administrative Region, Zamboanga Peninsula, Bangsamoro, Northern Mindanao, Caraga, and the rest of Visayas, Cagayan Valley, Central Luzon, and MIMAROPA. Flooding (including flash floods), rain-induced landslides, and sediment-laden streamflows (i.e. lahars) may occur during heavy or prolonged rainfall especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards. PAGASA Regional Services Divisions may issue local thunderstorm/rainfall advisories and heavy rainfall warnings as appropriate.
• Strong winds: Gale conditions will be experienced in areas under Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) #2 while strong breeze to near gale conditions will be experienced in areas under TCWS #1. Potential impacts of these wind conditions to structures and vegetation are detailed in the TCWS section of this bulletin. In other areas, strong breeze to gale conditions will also prevail over Batanes, Babuyan Islands, and the northern coastal areas of Ilocos Norte and mainland Cagayan due to the northeasterly surge.
Hazards affecting coastal waters:
• Today, rough to very rough seas will prevail over the entire seaboards of Northern Luzon (3.0 to 5.5 m) and the seaboards of Aurora, Zambales, northern Palawan including Calamian and Kalayaan Islands (2.5 to 4.5 m), and all areas under TCWS #2 and #1 (2.5 to 5.5 m). Sea travel is risky over these waters, especially for small seacrafts.
• Moderate to rough seas (1.2 to 2.8 m) will be experienced over the other seaboards of the country today. Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions.
Other tropical systems being monitored:
• At 4:00 AM today, the center of Severe Tropical Storm "SAUDEL” outside the PAR was estimated based on all available data at 1,125 km West of Northern Luzon (17.4°N, 109.8°E). It has maximum sustained winds of 95 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 115 km/h. It is moving westward at 15 km/h and is heading towards the central portion of Vietnam. With this development, this is the final update on this tropical cyclone.
Location of center At 4:00 AM today, the center of Tropical Storm "QUINTA" was estimated based on all available data at 345 km East of Virac, Catanduanes (13.5°N, 127.4°E).
Strength Maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 80 km/h.
Movement Moving Westward at 20 km/h.
Forecast Positions
• 24 Hour (Tomorrow morning): 75 km West of Pili, Camarines Sur or 120 km East Southeast of Tayabas, Quezon (13.6°N, 122.6°E)
• 48 Hour (Tuesday morning): 365 km West of Calapan City, Oriental Mindoro (13.7°N, 117.8°E)
• 72 Hour (Wednesday morning): 840 km West of Central Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR) (14.4°N, 112.5°E)
• 96 Hour (Thursday morning): 1,265 km West of Central Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR) (15.2°N, 108.2°E)
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL
TCWS #2
(61-120 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 24 hours)
•Luzon
Catanduanes, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Albay, Sorsogon, the northern portion of Masbate (Baleno, Aroroy, Masbate City) including Burias and Ticao Islands, the southern portion of Quezon (Perez, Alabat, Quezon, Calauag, Guinayangan, Tagkawayan, Buenavista, San Narciso, San Andres, San Francisco, Mulanay, Catanauan, Lopez, General Luna, Macalelon, Gumaca, Pitogo, Unisan, Plaridel, Atimonan, Agdangan), and Marinduque.
Impacts of the wind
• Light to Moderate damage to high risk structures;
• Very light to light damage to medium-risk structures;
• No damage to very light damage to low risk structures
• Unshielded, old dilapidated schoolhouses, makeshift shanties, and other structures of light materials are partially damaged or unroofed.
• A number of nipa and cogon houses may be partially or totally unroofed.
• Some old galvanized iron (G.I.) roofs may be peeled or blown off.
• Some wooden, old electric posts are tilted or downed.
• Some damage to poorly constructed signs/billboards
• In general, the winds may bring light to moderate damage to the exposed communities. Most banana plants, a few mango trees, ipil-ipil and similar types of trees are downed or broken.
• Some coconut trees may be tilted with few others broken.
• Rice and corn may be adversely affected.
• Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some heavy-foliaged trees blown down.
TCWS #1
(30-60 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 36 hours)
•Luzon
The rest of Masbate, the rest of Quezon, Laguna, Rizal, Batangas, Cavite, Metro Manila, Bulacan, Pampanga, Bataan, the southern portion of Zambales (San Marcelino, San Felipe, San Narciso, Castillejos, Subic, San Antonio, Olongapo City, Botolan, Cabangan), Occidental Mindoro, Oriental Mindoro, and Romblon
•Visayas
Northern Samar, the northern portion of Samar (Calbayog City, Santa Margarita, Santo Nino, Almagro, Tagapul-An, Gandara, San Jose de Buan, Matuguinao, San Jorge, Tarangnan, Pagsanghan), and the northern portion of Eastern Samar (Maslog, Dolores, Oras, Jipapad, Arteche, San Policarpo)
Impacts of the wind
• Very light or no damage to low risk structures,
• Light damage to medium to high risk structures
• Slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities. Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged
• Twigs of small trees may be broken.
• Rice crops, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.
The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next Severe Weather Bulletin to be issued at 8 AM today.
Link:http://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tropical-cyclone/severe-weather-bulletin/2
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