SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #5
FOR: TROPICAL DEPRESSION "#QuintaPH"
TROPICAL CYCLONE: WARNING
ISSUED AT 11:00 PM, 24 October 2020
(Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin to be issued at 2 AM tomorrow)
TROPICAL DEPRESSION "QUINTA" MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH WHILE MOVING WESTWARD TOWARDS BICOL REGION
Track and intensity outlook:
• Track: Tropical Depression "QUINTA" is forecast to continue moving westward until its landfall over Bicol Region tomorrow evening or on Monday early morning. Afterwards, it will traverse the Southern Luzon area until Monday evening. Thereafter, it will begin turning west-northwestward until it exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility on Tuesday morning or afternoon.
• Intensity: “QUINTA” is forecast to reach tropical storm category within the next 12 to 24 hours. However, further intensification to severe tropical storm category prior to landfall over Bicol Region remains a possibility. After crossing the Philippine archipelago, this tropical cyclone will continue intensifying over the West Philippine Sea, reaching typhoon category by Tuesday evening.
Hazards affecting land areas:
• Rainfall: Tomorrow, “QUINTA” will bring moderate to heavy rains over Bicol Region, Northern Samar, and Quezon and light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Aurora, Metro Manila, MIMAROPA, Zamboanga Peninsula, Bangsamoro, Northern Mindanao, Caraga, and the rest of CALABARZON and Visayas. The tail-end of a frontal system will likewise bring moderate to heavy rains over the northern portions of mainland Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Apayao, and Ilocos Norte and light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Batanes, and the rest of Cagayan, Apayao, and Ilocos Norte. Flooding (including flash floods), rain-induced landslides, and sediment-laden streamflows (i.e. lahars) may occur during heavy or prolonged rainfall especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards. PAGASA Regional Services Divisions may issue local thunderstorm/rainfall advisories and heavy rainfall warnings as appropriate.
• Strong Winds: Strong breeze to near gale conditions will be experienced in areas under Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) #1 within 36 hours of the raising of the wind signal. Potential impacts of these wind conditions to structures and vegetation are detailed in the TCWS section of this bulletin. Strong breeze to gale conditions will also prevail over Batanes, Babuyan Islands, and the northern coastal areas of Ilocos Norte and mainland Cagayan due to a northeasterly surge.
Hazards affecting coastal waters:
• In the next 24 hours, rough to very rough seas will prevail over the entire seaboards of Northern (3.0 to 5.5 m) and Central Luzon (2.5 to 3.5 m), the western seaboards of Bataan, Batangas, Occidental Mindoro including Lubang Island, and northern Palawan including Calamian and Kalayaan Islands (2.5 to 3.0 m), and the seaboard of Aurora (2.5 to 4.5 m) and all areas under TCWS (2.5 to 5.5 m). Sea travel is risky over these areas, especially for small seacrafts.
• Moderate to rough seas (1.2 to 2.8 m) will be experienced over the other seaboards of the country. Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions.
Other disturbance being monitored:
• At 10:00 PM today, the center of Severe Tropical Storm "SAUDEL” outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) was estimated based on all available data at 955 km West of Northern Luzon (17.6°N, 111.4°E). It has maximum sustained winds of 95 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 115 km/h. It is moving westward at 20 km/h and is heading towards the central portion of Vietnam.
Location of eye/center: At 10:00 PM today, the center of Tropical Depression "QUINTA" was estimated based on all available data at 505 km East of Juban, Sorsogon or 475 km East of Virac, Catanduanes (13.4°N, 128.6°E).
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 70 km/h.
Movement: Moving Westward at 20 km/h.
Forecast Positions
• 24 Hour (Tomorrow evening): 35 km Northwest of Virac, Catanduanes (13.8°N, 124.0°E)
• 48 Hour (Monday evening): 235 km West of Calapan City, Oriental Mindoro (13.6°N, 119.0°E)
• 72 Hour (Tuesday evening): 745 km West of Cavite City, Cavite (OUTSIDE PAR) (14.3°N, 114.0°E)
• 96 Hour (Wednesday evening): 1,110 km West of Subic Bay (OUTSIDE PAR) (15.2°N, 110.0°E)
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL
TCWS 1 (30-60 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 36 hours)
Luzon:
Catanduanes
Sorsogon
Albay
the northern portion of Masbate (Mobo, Uson, Milagros, Masbate City, Baleno, Mandaon, Balud, Aroroy, Dimasalang)
including Burias and Ticao Islands
Camarines Norte
Camarines Sur
Quezon
Laguna
Rizal
Batangas
Cavite
Metro Manila
Occidental Mindoro
Oriental Mindoro
Marinduque
and Romblon
Visayas:
Northern Samar
The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next Severe Weather Bulletin to be issued at 2 AM tomorrow.
@PAGASA-DOST
#GianTVPages
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