SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #16
FOR: TYPHOON "#QuintaPH" (MOLAVE)
TROPICAL CYCLONE: WARNING
ISSUED AT 8:00 AM, 26 October 2020
(Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM today)
TYPHOON "QUINTA" MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH AND IS NOW IN THE VICINITY OF MAMBURAO, OCCIDENTAL MINDORO.
Track and intensity outlook:
• Track: The center of Typhoon "QUINTA" is forecast to emerge over the West Philippine Sea within the next hour. It will then turn more west-northwestward while maintaining speed towards the western limit of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). “QUINTA” is forecast to exit the PAR tomorrow morning
• Intensity: "QUINTA” is forecast to remain at typhoon category throughout its passage over Mindoro Island. After emerging over the West Philippine Sea, this typhoon is forecast to re-intensify. “QUINTA” may reach its peak intensity within 24 to 48 hours.
Hazards affecting land areas:
• Rainfall: Today, “QUINTA” will bring moderate to heavy with at times intense rains over Occidental Mindoro, Oriental Mindoro, Romblon, Marinduque, northern Palawan including Calamian and Cuyo Islands, CALABARZON, Aurora, Isabela, Aklan, Capiz, and Antique. The tail-end of a frontal system will likewise bring moderate to heavy rains over Cagayan, Apayao, Kalinga, Abra, Ilocos Norte, and Ilocos Sur. These two weather systems will also bring light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Metro Manila, Zamboanga Peninsula, Bangsamoro, Northern Mindanao, Caraga, and the rest of Luzon and Visayas. Flooding (including flash floods) and rain-induced landslides may occur during heavy or prolonged rainfall especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards. PAGASA Regional Services Divisions may issue local thunderstorm/rainfall advisories and heavy rainfall warnings as appropriate.
• Strong winds: Destructive typhoon-force winds will be experienced in areas under Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) #3, damaging gale to storm-force winds in areas under TCWS #2, and strong breeze to near gale conditions in areas under TCWS #1. Potential impacts of these wind conditions to structures and vegetation are detailed in the TCWS section of this bulletin. In other areas, strong breeze to gale conditions due to the northeasterly surge will also prevail over Ilocos Region, Batanes, Cagayan, Apayao, and northern Zambales.
• Storm surge: A storm surge of 2.0 to 3.0 m may be experienced over the coastal areas of Camarines Norte, and the northern coastal areas of Quezon including Polillo Islands and Camarines Sur and 1.0 to 2.0 m over the coastal areas of Batangas, Marinduque, Occidental Mindoro, Oriental Mindoro, Romblon, and the remaining coastal areas of Quezon and Camarines Sur.
Hazards affecting coastal waters:
• Today, rough to high seas (2.5 to 7.0 m) will be experienced over the seaboards of areas under TCWS. Rough to very rough seas (2.5 to 5.0 m) will also prevail over the remaining seaboards of Luzon and the western, northern, and eastern seaboards of Visayas. Sea travel is risky for all types of sea vessels over these waters.
• Moderate to rough seas (1.2 to 3.1 m) will be experienced over the other seaboards of the country today. Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions.
Location of eye/center:
At 7:00 AM today, the eye of Typhoon "QUINTA" was located based on all available data in the vicinity of Mamburao, Occidental Mindoro (13.2°N, 120.7°E).
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 125 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 180 km/h.
Movement: Moving Westward at 25 km/h.
Forecast Positions
• 24 Hour (Tomorrow morning): 495 km West of Calapan City, Oriental Mindoro (13.5°N, 116.6°E)
• 48 Hour (Wednesday morning): 1,015 km West of Southern Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR) (14.3°N, 111.5°E)
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL
TCWS#3 (121-170 km/h winds prevailing)
The southern portion of Batangas (Lian, Tuy, San Juan, Rosario, Padre Garcia, Lipa City, Cuenca, San Jose, Ibaan, Taysan, Lobo, Batangas City, Mabini, Tingloy, San Pascual, Bauan, Alitagtag, San Luis, Taal, Santa Teresita, Calatagan, Balayan, Calaca, Lemery, Agoncillo, San Nicolas, Mataas Na Kahoy), the northern and central portion of Oriental Mindoro (Oriental Mindoro (Mansalay, Roxas, Bongabong, Bansud, Gloria, Pinamalayan, Pola, Socorro, Victoria, Naujan, Calapan City, Baco, San Teodoro, Puerto Galera), and the northern and central portion of Occidental Mindoro (San Jose, Rizal, Calintaan, Sablayan, Santa Cruz, Mamburao, Paluan, Abra de Ilog) including Lubang Island
• Heavy damage to high–risk structures;
• Moderate damage to medium-risk structures;
• Light damage to low risk structures
• Increasing damage (up to more than 50%) to old, dilapidated residential structures and houses of light materials. Majority of all nipa and cogon houses may be unroofed or destroyed
• Houses of medium strength materials (old, timber or mixed timber-CHB structures, usually with G.I. roofing’s); some warehouses or bodega-type structures are unroofed.
• There may be widespread disruption of electrical power and communication services.
• Almost all banana plants are downed.
• Some big trees (acacia, mango, etc.) are broken or uprooted.
• Dwarf-type or hybrid coconut trees are tilted or downed.
• Rice and corn crops may suffer heavy losses.
• Damage to shrubbery and trees with foliage blown off; some large trees blown down.
TCWS#2 (61-120 km/h winds prevailing)
Quezon, Rizal, Laguna, the rest of Batangas, Cavite, Metro Manila, the southern portion of Bulacan (Norzagaray, Angat, San Rafael, Baliuag, Pulilan, Calumpit, Hagonoy, Paombong, Malolos City, Plaridel, Bustos, San Jose del Monte City, Santa Maria, Pandi, Guiguinto, Balagtas, Bulacan, Bocaue, Meycauayan City, Obando, Marilao), the southern portion of Pampanga (Lubao, Sasmuan, Macabebe, Masantol, Minalin, Apalit), Bataan, Marinduque, the northern portion of Romblon (Concepcion, Banton, Corcuera, Romblon, San Agustin, Calatrava, San Andres, Odiongan, Santa Maria), the rest of Oriental Mindoro, the rest of Occidental Mindoro, and Calamian Islands The extreme northern portion of Antique (Caluya)
• Light to Moderate damage to high risk structures;
• Very light to light damage to medium-risk structures;
• No damage to very light damage to low risk structures
• Unshielded, old dilapidated schoolhouses, makeshift shanties, and other structures of light materials are partially damaged or unroofed.
• A number of nipa and cogon houses may be partially or totally unroofed.
• Some old galvanized iron (G.I.) roofs may be peeled or blown off.
• Some wooden, old electric posts are tilted or downed.
• Some damage to poorly constructed signs/billboards
In general, the winds may bring light to moderate damage to the exposed communities. Most banana plants, a few mango trees, ipil-ipil and similar types of trees are downed or broken.
• Some coconut trees may be tilted with few others broken.
• Rice and corn may be adversely affected.
• Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some heavy-foliaged trees blown down.
TCWS#1 (30-60 km/h winds prevailing)
Camarines Norte, the western portion of Camarines Sur (Siruma, Tinambac, Calabanga, Naga City, Pili, Bula, Balatan, Minalabac, Milaor, Bombon, Magarao, Canaman, Camaligan, Gainza, San Fernando, Pasacao, Pamplona, Cabusao, Libmanan, Sipocot, Lupi, Ragay, Del Gallego), Burias Island, the rest of Romblon, the northern portion of Palawan (El Nido, Taytay) including Cuyo Islands, the southern portion of Aurora (Dingalan, San Luis), the southern portion of Nueva Ecija (Gabaldon, Laur, Palayan City, General Tinio, Cabanatuan City, Aliaga, Zaragoza, Jaen, San Antonio, Santa Rosa, Peñaranda, Gapan City, San Leonardo, San Isidro, Cabiao), the southern portion of Tarlac (La Paz, Tarlac City, San Jose, Concepcion, Capas, Bamban), the rest of Bulacan, the rest of Pampanga, and the central and southern portion of Zambales (Iba, Botolan, Cabangan, San Felipe, San Narciso, San Antonio, San Marcelino, Castillejos, Subic, Olongapo City) Aklan and the rest of the northern portion of Antique (Laua-An, Barbaza, Tibiao, Culasi, Sebaste, Pandan, Libertad)
• Very light or no damage to low risk structures,
• Light damage to medium to high risk structures
• Slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities. Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged
• Twigs of small trees may be broken.
• Rice crops, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.
TCWS #1 in other areas is hereby lifted.
The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next Severe Weather Bulletin to be issued at 11 today.
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