SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #15
FOR: TROPICAL STORM "#PepitoPH" (SAUDEL)
TROPICAL CYCLONE: WARNING
ISSUED AT 8:00 AM, 21 October 2020
(Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM today)
TROPICAL STORM "PEPITO" IS NOW OVER THE WEST PHILIPPINE SEA.
Track and intensity outlook:
• Track: “PEPITO” is forecast to move generally westward over the West Philippine Sea today, before slowing down and turning northwestward tomorrow. It is forecast to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tomorrow morning or afternoon. On the forecast track, “PEPITO” will accelerate and turn westward beginning Friday towards the central portion of Vietnam.
• Intensity: “PEPITO” is forecast to gradually intensify over the West Philippine Sea and may reach severe tropical storm category by tomorrow afternoon or evening.
Hazards affecting land areas:
• Rainfall: Today, “PEPITO” will bring moderate to heavy rains over Batanes, Cagayan, Ilocos Norte, Pangasinan, La Union, Apayao, Benguet, Zambales, Bataan, Occidental Mindoro, and Calamian Islands. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains will be experienced over Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon. Flooding (including flash floods) and rain-induced landslides may occur during heavy or prolonged rainfall especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards. PAGASA Regional Services Divisions may issue local thunderstorm/rainfall advisories and heavy rainfall warnings as appropriate.
• Winds: Gale-force winds and high (strong to near gale) winds will be experienced in areas under Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) #2 and #1, respectively. High to gale-force winds due to the northeasterly surface wind flow will also be experienced over the rest of northern Luzon, especially in coastal and mountainous areas.
Hazards affecting coastal waters:
• Rough to very rough seas (2.5 to 5.5 m) will be experienced over the areas where TCWS and Gale Warning are in effect. In particular, such conditions are expected over the entire seaboards of Northern and Central Luzon, the seaboard of northern Quezon including Pollilo Islands, and the western seaboards of Batangas, Occidental Mindoro (including Lubang Islands), and Palawan (including Calamian and Kalayaan Islands), Sea travel is risky over these areas, especially for those using small seacrafts.
• Moderate to rough seas (1.5 to 3.0 m) will prevail over the eastern seaboards of southern Quezon, Bicol Region, Eastern Visayas, Caraga, and Davao Region. Those with small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions.
Other disturbance beinga monitored:
• At 7:00 AM today, the Tropical Depression outside the PAR was estimated based on all available data at 1,900 km East Northeast of Extreme Northern Luzon (24.9°N, 139.8°E). It has maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 70 km/h. It is currently almost stationary. This disturbance remains unlikely to enter the PAR.
Location of eye/center At 7:00 AM today, the center of Tropical Storm "PEPITO" was estimated based on all available data at 115 km Northwest of Dagupan City, Pangasinan or 120 km West Northwest of Baguio City (16.7°N, 119.5°E).
Strength Maximum sustained winds of 75 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 90 km/h.
Movement Moving West Northwestward at 30 km/h.
Forecast Positions
• 24 Hour (Tomorrow morning): 350 km West of Dagupan City, Pangasinan (16.5°N, 117.1°E)
• 48 Hour (Friday morning): 465 km West of Sinait, Ilocos Sur (OUTSIDE PAR) (17.4°N, 116.0°E)
• 72 Hour (Saturday morning): 730 km West of Sinait, Ilocos Sur (OUTSIDE PAR) (17.7°N, 113.5°E)
• 96 Hour (Sunday morning): 1,145 km West of Northern Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR) (17.7°N, 109.6°E)
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL
TCWS#2
(61-120 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 24 hours)
La Union, the northern portion of Zambales (Iba, Palauig, Masinloc, Candelaria, Santa Cruz), and the western portion of Pangasinan (Bani, Anda, Bolinao, Agno, Dasol, Burgos, Alaminos City, Mabini, Sual, Infanta, Bugallon, Labrador, Aguilar, Mangatarem, Urbiztondo, Basista, Malasiqui, San Fabian, Pozzorubio, Sison, Laoac, Urdaneta City, Manaoag, San Jacinto, Dagupan City, Mangaldan, Mapandan, Santa Barbara, San Carlos City, Calasiao, Binmaley, Lingayen)
• Light to Moderate damage to high risk structures;
• Very light to light damage to medium-risk structures;
• No damage to very light damage to low risk structures
• Unshielded, old dilapidated schoolhouses, makeshift shanties, and other structures of light materials are partially damaged or unroofed.
• A number of nipa and cogon houses may be partially or totally unroofed.
• Some old galvanized iron (G.I.) roofs may be peeled or blown off.
• Some wooden, old electric posts are tilted or downed.
• Some damage to poorly constructed signs/billboards
• In general, the winds may bring light to moderate damage to the exposed communities. Most banana plants, a few mango trees, ipil-ipil and similar types of trees are downed or broken.
• Some coconut trees may be tilted with few others broken.
• Rice and corn may be adversely affected.
• Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some heavy-foliaged trees blown down.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL
TCWS#1
(30-60 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 36 hours)
Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, the rest of Pangasinan, Abra, the western portion of Kalinga (Balbalan, Pasil, Lubuagan, Tinglayan), the western portion of Mountain Province (Barlig, Sadanga, Bontoc, Sagada, Sabangan, Bauko, Tadian, Besao), the western portion of Ifugao (Banaue, Hingyon, Kiangan, Tinoc, Hungduan, Asipulo), Benguet, the western portion of Nueva Vizcaya (Ambaguio, Kayapa, Aritao, Santa Fe), the western portion of Nueva Ecija (Carranglan, Lupao, Muñoz City, Santo Domingo, Zaragoza, Aliaga, Licab, Guimba, Talugtug, Quezon, Nampicuan, Cuyapo), Tarlac, and the rest of Zambales
• Very light or no damage to low risk structures,
• Light damage to medium to high risk structures
• Slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities. Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged
• Twigs of small trees may be broken.
• Rice crops, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.
TCWS #1 in other areas is hereby lifted.
The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next Severe Weather Bulletin to be issued at 11 AM today.
@PAGASA-DOST
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