SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #10
FOR: TYPHOON "#RollyPH" (GONI)
TROPICAL CYCLONE: WARNING
ISSUED AT 8:00 PM, 31 October 2020
(Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today)
TYPHOON "ROLLY" MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH AS IT THREATENS BICOL REGION.
Track and intensity outlook:
• Track: On the forecast track, the center of the eye of the typhoon is likely to make landfall over Catanduanes tomorrow early morning, then it will pass over mainland Camarines Provinces tomorrow morning, and over mainland Quezon tomorrow afternoon. Violent winds and intense rainfall associated with the inner rainband-eyewall region will be experienced over Catanduanes, Camarines Provinces tomorrow early morning through afternoon and over Quezon tomorrow afternoon through evening. After crossing the Southern Luzon - Metro Manila area, the center of “ROLLY” is forecast to exit the mainland Luzon landmass on Monday early morning.
• Intensity: “ROLLY” is likely to remain a typhoon category (185-215 km/h) by the time it makes landfall. While traversing over Luzon, “ROLLY” is forecast to weaken considerably and emerge as a severe tropical storm or minimal typhoon over the West Philippine Sea.
Hazards affecting land areas:
• Rainfall: Tonight, the outer rainbands of "ROLLY" will bring light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Bicol Region, Visayas, and Quezon. Beginning tomorrow early morning, the passage of Typhoon “ROLLY” will bring heavy to intense rains over Metro Manila, Bicol Region, CALABARZON, Aurora, Bulacan, Zambales, Bataan, Marinduque, Romblon, Occidental Mindoro, and Oriental Mindoro. Moderate to heavy rains with at times intense rains will be experienced over Cagayan Valley, Cordillera Administrative Region, Ilocos Region, and the rest of Central Luzon. Flooding (including flash floods), rain-induced landslides, and sediment-laden streamflows (i.e. lahar) may occur during heavy or prolonged rainfall especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards. PAGASA Regional Services Divisions may issue local thunderstorm/rainfall advisories and heavy rainfall warnings as appropriate.
• Strong winds: Very destructive typhoon-force winds will be experienced in areas under Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) #4, destructive typhoon-force winds in areas under TCWS #3 damaging gale- to storm-force winds in areas under TCWS #2, and strong breeze to near gale conditions in areas under TCWS #1. Potential impacts of the wind conditions to structures and vegetation under each wind signal are detailed in the TCWS section of this bulletin. Elsewhere, strong breeze to near gale conditions due to the northeasterlies will be experienced over Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, Apayao, and the coastal and mountainous areas of Cagayan and Isabela (that are not under TCWS #1).
• Storm surge: There is a high risk of storm surge of more than 3.0 m over the northern coastal areas of Quezon including Polillo Islands, Camarines Provinces, and Catanduanes; 2.1 to 3.0 m over the coastal areas of Manila, Cavite, Bulacan, Pampanga, Bataan, the southeastern coastal area of Batangas and the southwestern coastal area of Quezon; 1.0 to 2.0 m over the coastal areas of Aurora, Zambales, Occidental Mindoro, the rest of the coastal areas of Bicol Region, Batangas, and Quezon within 24 hours which may result in life-threatening and damaging coastal inundation. This storm surge may be accompanied by swells and breaking waves reaching the coast. For more information, please refer to Storm Surge Warning #1 issued at 2PM today posted on PAGASA’s official website.
Hazards affecting coastal waters:
• Today, rough to phenomenal seas (2.5 to 15.0 m) will be experienced over the seaboard of areas where TCWS is in effect and rough to very rough seas (2.5 to 5.0 m) over the remaining seaboards of Northern Luzon and the eastern seaboards of Eastern Visayas (that are not under TCWS) and Caraga. Sea travel is risky for all types of seacrafts over these waters, especially those under TCWS.
• Moderate to rough seas (1.2 to 2.5 m) will be experienced over remaining seaboards of the country. Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions.
Other tropical systems being monitored:
At 7:00 PM today, the center of Tropical Depression “ATSANI” was estimated at 1,480 km East of Southern Luzon (14.4°N, 137.9°E). It currently has maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 70 km/h. It is moving northwestward at 25 km/h and is forecast to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility tomorrow afternoon. However, it remains less likely to affect any portion of the country over the next 2 to 3 days. It is likely to re-intensify into a tropical storm in the next 24 hours.
Location of eye/center:
• At 7:00 PM today, the eye of Typhoon "ROLLY" was located based on all available data at 280 km East Northeast of Virac, Catanduanes(14.3°N, 126.7°E).
Strength:
• Maximum sustained winds of 215 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 265 km/h.
Movement:
• Moving West Southwestward at 20 km/h.
Forecast Positions
• 24 Hour (Tomorrow afternoon): In the vicinity of Pagbilao, Quezon (14°N, 121.8°E)
• 48 Hour (Monday afternoon):310 km West of Iba, Zambales (15.3°N, 117.1°E)
• 72 Hour (Tuesday afternoon): 720 km West of Iba, Zambales (OUTSIDE PAR) (15.0°N, 113.3°E)
• 96 Hour (Wednesday afternoon):1,020 km West of Central Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR) (14.8°N, 110.8°E)
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS
TCWS #4
(171-220 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 12 hours)
LUZON:
Catanduanes and the eastern portion of Camarines Sur (Siruma, Tinambac, Goa, Lagonoy, San Jose, Garchitorena, Presentacion, Caramoan)
TCWS #3
(121-170 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 18 hours)
LUZON:
Camarines Norte, the rest of Camarines Sur, Albay, Sorsogon, Burias and Ticao Islands, Marinduque, and the southern portion of Quezon (Atimonan, Pagbilao, Padre Burgos, Agdangan, Unisan, Plaridel, Gumaca, Pitogo, Macalelon, Lopez, General Luna, Catanauan, Mulanay, San Francisco, San Andres, San Narciso, Buenavista, Guinayangan, Tagkawayan, Calauag, Quezon, Alabat, Perez)
VISAYAS:
Northern Samar
TCWS #2
(61-120 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 24 hours)
LUZON:
Pampanga, Bulacan, the southern portion of Nueva Ecija (Cabiao, San Isidro, Gapan City, General Tinio, Peñaranda, San Antonio, Jaen, San Leonardo, Santa Rosa, Cabanatuan City, Palayan City, Laur, Gabaldon, Bongabon), the southern portion of Zambales (San Marcelino, San Felipe, San Narciso, San Antonio, Castillejos, Subic, Olongapo City), Bataan, Metro Manila, Rizal, Cavite, Batangas, Laguna, the southern portion of Aurora (Maria Aurora, San Luis, Baler, Dingalan), the rest of Quezon including Polillo Islands, the rest of Masbate, Romblon, Oriental Mindoro, and Occidental Mindoro including Lubang Island
VISAYAS:
The northern portion of Samar (Catbalogan City, Jiabong, Motiong, Paranas, Hinabangan, San Sebastian, Tarangnan, San Jorge, San Jose de Buan, Matuguinao, Gandara, Santa Margarita, Calbayog City, Santo Nino, Almagro, Tagapul-An), the northern portion of Eastern Samar (San Julian, Sulat, Taft, Can-Avid, Dolores, Maslog, Oras, San Policarpo, Arteche, Jipapad), the extreme northern portion of Antique (Pandan, Libertad, Caluya), and the northwestern portion of Aklan (Buruanga, Malay, Nabas, Ibajay)
TCWS #1
(30-60 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 36 hours)
LUZON:
The rest of Zambales, Tarlac, the rest of Nueva Ecija, the rest of Aurora, Pangasinan, La Union, the southern portion of Ilocos Sur (Quirino, Gregorio Del Pilar, Salcedo, San Emilio, Candon City, Galimuyod, Santa Lucia, Cervantes, Sigay, Santa Cruz, Suyo, Tagudin, Alilem, Sugpon), Mountain Province, Benguet, Ifugao, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, the central and southern portions of Isabela (Mallig, Quirino, Ilagan, Roxas, San Manuel, Burgos, Gamu, Palanan, San Mariano, Benito Soliven, Naguilian, Reina Mercedes, Luna, Aurora, Cabatuan, San Mateo, Cauayan City, Dinapigue, San Guillermo, Echague, San Agustin, Jones, Angadanan, Alicia, San Isidro, Ramon, Santiago City, Cordon), and Calamian Islands
VISAYAS:
The rest of Eastern, Samar, the rest of Samar, the northern portion of Leyte (Leyte, Tabango, San Isidro, Calubian, Capoocan, Carigara, Tunga, Barugo, San Miguel, Babatngon, Tacloban City), Biliran, the
northern portion of Antique (Sebaste, Culasi), the rest of Aklan, the northern portion of Capiz (Jamindan, Mambusao, Sapi-An, Ivisan, Roxas City, Panay, Pilar, Sigma, Dao, Panitan, Pontevedra, President
Roxas), and the northern portion of Iloilo (Carles, Balasan, Estancia, Batad)
The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next Severe Weather Bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
LINK: http://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tropical-cyclone/severe-weather-bulletin/2
@ PAGASA-DOST
#GTVP
No comments:
Post a Comment