SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #10
FOR: TROPICAL DEPRESSION "#OfelPH"
TROPICAL CYCLONE: WARNING
ISSUED AT 8:00 PM, 14 October 2020
(Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today)
"OFEL" IS NOW BETWEEN MARINDUQUE – ROMBLON AREA AND HEADING TOWARDS ORIENTAL MINDORO.
Landfall:
• Earlier landfall/s: Can-avid, Eastern Samar (2:30 AM, 14 October), Matnog, Sorsogon (6:00 AM, 14 October), and Burias Island, Masbate (12:00 PM, 14 October)
Track and intensity outlook:
• Track: "OFEL" will move westward traversing the Marinduque – Romblon area and will make landfall over Oriental Mindoro tonight or tomorrow early morning. It is likely to emerge over the West Philippine Sea tomorrow morning and exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Friday morning or afternoon.
• Intensity: "OFEL" is forecast to remain a tropical depression while crossing the Southern Luzon area. However, this weather disturbance is forecast to intensify into a tropical storm after emerging over the West Philippine Sea.
Hazards affecting land areas:
Rainfall:
• Tonight through tomorrow afternoon: “OFEL” will bring moderate to heavy with at times intense rains over CALABARZON, Camarines Norte, Marinduque, Romblon, and Mindoro Provinces. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains will be experienced over Central Luzon, Visayas, Mindanao, Metro Manila, Palawan, Cagayan, Isabela, and the rest of Bicol Region due to "OFEL" and the Southwest Monsoon.
• Flooding (including flashfloods) and rain-induced landslides may occur during heavy or prolonged rainfall especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards. PAGASA Regional Services Divisions may issue local thunderstorm/rainfall advisories and heavy rainfall warnings as appropriate.
Winds:
• Strong- to near gale-force winds will be experienced in areas under Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) #1 during the passage of the tropical depression. Details of potential wind damage can be found on the TCWS section of this bulletin.
• Occasional gusts associated with the northeasterly surface wind flow enhanced by “OFEL” and Tropical Storm “NANGKA” (outside PAR) may be experienced over Batanes, the northern and eastern portions of Cagayan (including Babuyan Islands), the northern portions of Apayao, Ilocos Norte, and Quezon, the eastern portion of Isabela, and Aurora, especially in coastal and mountainous areas.
Hazards affecting coastal waters:
• Gale Warning is in effect over the seaboards of Batanes and Ilocos Norte and the northern seaboard of Cagayan including Babuyan Islands due to rough seas (2.8 to 4.0 m) associated with the northeasterly surface wind flow. Sea travel is risky over these areas, especially for those using small seacrafts.
• Moderate to rough seas (2.1 to 3.7 m) due to “OFEL” will be experienced over the eastern seaboards of Luzon and Visayas in the next 24 hours, especially in areas where TCWS#1 is in effect. Those with small seacrafts are advised not to venture out to sea over these areas.
Location of eye/center At 7:00 PM today, the center of Tropical Depression "OFEL" was estimated based on all available data at 35 km North of Romblon, Romblon(12.9°N, 122.3°E).
Strength Maximum sustained winds of 45 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 55 km/h.
Movement Moving Westward at 15 km/h.
Forecast Positions • 24 Hour (Tomorrow afternoon): 290 km West of Calapan City, Oriental Mindoro (13.5°N, 118.5°E)
• 48 Hour (Friday afternoon):740 km West of Southern Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR) (14.0°N, 114.2°E)
• 72 Hour (Saturday afternoon): 1,260 km West of Southern Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR) (14.0°N, 109.4°E)
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL
TCWS #1 (30-60 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 36 hours)
Batangas, the southern portion of Laguna (Luisiana, Majayjay, Liliw, Nagcarlan, Rizal, San Pablo City, Calauan, Alaminos, Los Baños, Bay, Magdalena), the central and southern portions of Quezon (Guinayangan, Tagkawayan, Buenavista, San Narciso, San Andres, Mulanay, San Francisco, Catanauan, Lopez, Calauag, Quezon, Alabat, Perez, Atimonan, Tayabas City, Mauban, Sampaloc, Lucban, Gumaca, General Luna, Macalelon, Pitogo, Unisan, Plaridel, Padre Burgos, Agdangan, Pagbilao, Lucena City, Sariaya, Candelaria, Dolores, Tiaong, San Antonio), Calamian Islands, Occidental Mindoro, Oriental Mindoro, Marinduque, Romblon, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Albay, and Burias Island
TCWS #1 over Masbate including Ticao Islands are now hereby lifted.
The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next Severe Weather Bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #10
FOR: TROPICAL DEPRESSION "#OfelPH"
TROPICAL CYCLONE: WARNING
ISSUED AT 8:00 PM, 14 October 2020
(Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today)
"OFEL" IS NOW BETWEEN MARINDUQUE – ROMBLON AREA AND HEADING TOWARDS ORIENTAL MINDORO.
Landfall:
• Earlier landfall/s: Can-avid, Eastern Samar (2:30 AM, 14 October), Matnog, Sorsogon (6:00 AM, 14 October), and Burias Island, Masbate (12:00 PM, 14 October)
Track and intensity outlook:
• Track: "OFEL" will move westward traversing the Marinduque – Romblon area and will make landfall over Oriental Mindoro tonight or tomorrow early morning. It is likely to emerge over the West Philippine Sea tomorrow morning and exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Friday morning or afternoon.
• Intensity: "OFEL" is forecast to remain a tropical depression while crossing the Southern Luzon area. However, this weather disturbance is forecast to intensify into a tropical storm after emerging over the West Philippine Sea.
Hazards affecting land areas:
Rainfall:
• Tonight through tomorrow afternoon: “OFEL” will bring moderate to heavy with at times intense rains over CALABARZON, Camarines Norte, Marinduque, Romblon, and Mindoro Provinces. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains will be experienced over Central Luzon, Visayas, Mindanao, Metro Manila, Palawan, Cagayan, Isabela, and the rest of Bicol Region due to "OFEL" and the Southwest Monsoon.
• Flooding (including flashfloods) and rain-induced landslides may occur during heavy or prolonged rainfall especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards. PAGASA Regional Services Divisions may issue local thunderstorm/rainfall advisories and heavy rainfall warnings as appropriate.
Winds:
• Strong- to near gale-force winds will be experienced in areas under Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) #1 during the passage of the tropical depression. Details of potential wind damage can be found on the TCWS section of this bulletin.
• Occasional gusts associated with the northeasterly surface wind flow enhanced by “OFEL” and Tropical Storm “NANGKA” (outside PAR) may be experienced over Batanes, the northern and eastern portions of Cagayan (including Babuyan Islands), the northern portions of Apayao, Ilocos Norte, and Quezon, the eastern portion of Isabela, and Aurora, especially in coastal and mountainous areas.
Hazards affecting coastal waters:
• Gale Warning is in effect over the seaboards of Batanes and Ilocos Norte and the northern seaboard of Cagayan including Babuyan Islands due to rough seas (2.8 to 4.0 m) associated with the northeasterly surface wind flow. Sea travel is risky over these areas, especially for those using small seacrafts.
• Moderate to rough seas (2.1 to 3.7 m) due to “OFEL” will be experienced over the eastern seaboards of Luzon and Visayas in the next 24 hours, especially in areas where TCWS#1 is in effect. Those with small seacrafts are advised not to venture out to sea over these areas.
Location of eye/center At 7:00 PM today, the center of Tropical Depression "OFEL" was estimated based on all available data at 35 km North of Romblon, Romblon(12.9°N, 122.3°E).
Strength Maximum sustained winds of 45 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 55 km/h.
Movement Moving Westward at 15 km/h.
Forecast Positions • 24 Hour (Tomorrow afternoon): 290 km West of Calapan City, Oriental Mindoro (13.5°N, 118.5°E)
• 48 Hour (Friday afternoon):740 km West of Southern Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR) (14.0°N, 114.2°E)
• 72 Hour (Saturday afternoon): 1,260 km West of Southern Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR) (14.0°N, 109.4°E)
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL
TCWS #1 (30-60 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 36 hours)
Batangas, the southern portion of Laguna (Luisiana, Majayjay, Liliw, Nagcarlan, Rizal, San Pablo City, Calauan, Alaminos, Los Baños, Bay, Magdalena), the central and southern portions of Quezon (Guinayangan, Tagkawayan, Buenavista, San Narciso, San Andres, Mulanay, San Francisco, Catanauan, Lopez, Calauag, Quezon, Alabat, Perez, Atimonan, Tayabas City, Mauban, Sampaloc, Lucban, Gumaca, General Luna, Macalelon, Pitogo, Unisan, Plaridel, Padre Burgos, Agdangan, Pagbilao, Lucena City, Sariaya, Candelaria, Dolores, Tiaong, San Antonio), Calamian Islands, Occidental Mindoro, Oriental Mindoro, Marinduque, Romblon, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Albay, and Burias Island
TCWS #1 over Masbate including Ticao Islands are now hereby lifted.
The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next Severe Weather Bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
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